TFM Midday Update 11-08-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

  • Dec corn down 4 @ 6.72
  • Corn inspections totaled 9.1 mb
  • Corn is 87% harvested (vs 76% average)
  • Volume expected to be low with midterm elections today
  • US corn exports are running over 20% behind last year
  • Domestic basis levels remain strong, but export basis is weak
  • The French farm ministry reduced their corn crop to 10.7 mmt (vs 11.15 mmt last month) because of drought

SOYBEANS

  • Jan soybeans down 2 @ 14.48
  • Soybean inspections totaled 95.2 mb
  • Soybeans are 94% harvested (vs 86% average)
  • In October, China imported 4.4 mmt of soybeans (the lowest number for October in 8 years)
  • The possibility of a railway strike is again being talked about
  • China’s zero-Covid policy is affecting demand
  • Storms moving across the northern US Plains could bring blizzard conditions and cold weather
  • In addition to export data and midterm elections, the market will also get inflation data this week

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WHEAT

  • Dec wheat down 6 @ 8.40, Dec KC up 1 @ 9.58, & Dec MNPLS up 5 @ 9.65
  • Wheat inspections totaled 6.7 mb
  • Winter wheat is 92% planted (vs 90% average) and is 73% emerged (vs 74% average)
  • Winter wheat is rated 30% good to excellent (up 2% from last week and down from 45% last year)
  • Russia is insisting that sanctions be removed before they agree to an extension of the export deal
  • Russia is offering the world’s cheapest wheat
  • Parts of eastern Australia are expected to get another 1-3 inches of rain (in already wet areas)

CATTLE

  • Dec LC down 0.200 @ 152.850 & Nov FC down 0.175 @ 178.050
  • Showlists were mixed (higher in Texas and lower in Kansas and Nebraska)
  • Slaughter pace remains strong but there is concern about demand
  • Strength in futures may mean feedlots hold out for higher prices
  • December live cattle futures closed the upside chart gap yesterday
  • Choice cuts up 0.80 and select up 4.02
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/7: down 0.08 @ 176.91

HOGS

  • Dec hogs down 1.700 @ 83.350 & Dec pork cutout down 0.575 @ 95.625
  • December hog futures gained 4.075 yesterday
  • Stronger cash anticipated today as packers need to maintain slaughter pace
  • February hog futures have a chart gap well below the market (almost $10 lower)
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.41
  • Hog slaughter projected at 490K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/8: down 0.57 @ 90.88

Author

Brandon Doherty

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