This morning grain markets are recovering after yesterday’s risk off session that was caused by negative Chinese economic data, lower energy prices, and concern about US debt.
Private exporters reported sales of 270,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
The average pre-report estimate for US corn yield comes in at 173.2 bpa vs 173.0 bpa in October. The average production number is pegged at 15.076 bb, up slightly from 15.064 bb last month.
The pre-report estimate for US 23/24 corn carryout is 2.129 bb, up slightly from 2.111 bb in October. And the world 23/24 ending stocks projection is 312.0 mmt vs 312.4 mmt last month.
The weather forecast for Brazil is now turning drier and hotter. They have already been struggling and this is causing planting to slow for both corn and soybeans.
The USDA announced that private exporters reported sales of 433,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China and 132,000 mt for delivery to unknown, both during the 23/24 marketing year. The USDA also reported an additional set of sales to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year totaling 344,500 mt as “received in the reporting period.”
The average pre-report estimate for US soybean yield comes in at 49.5 bpa vs 49.6 bpa in October. The average production number is pegged at 4.098 bb, down slightly from 4.104 bb last month.
The pre-report estimate for US 23/24 soybean carryout is 221 mb, up from 220 mb in October. And the world 23/24 ending stocks projection is 115.6 mmt, unchanged from last month.
Yesterday Paraguay saw temperatures between 100-115 degrees, and now that hot air is expected to move into central Brazil, adding to problems there.
Soybean meal made a new contract high yesterday, and another this morning. As of this writing December meal’s high for today is 464.20. This continues to offer support for soybean futures.
The pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout is 670 mb, unchanged from October. And the world 23/24 ending stocks projection is 257.9 mmt, down slightly from 258.1 mmt last month.
There is more concern about US wheat demand, with recent tenders to Jordan and Algeria likely fulfilled at lower prices by Russia.
Tomorrow’s report is not expected to have much change in the wheat numbers, but the USDA could lower the Argentina crop by 1-2 mmt. They could potentially also raise the Russian crop and Russian exports.
According to Ukraine’s ministry of agriculture, their grain exports from July 1 to November 6 have totaled 9.8 mmt, but that is down from 14.3 mmt for the same timeframe last year.
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