TFM Midday Update 11-09-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 7 @ 6.61
  • Turkey is trying to get an extension on the Ukraine export corridor for 12 months – this may be offering some resistance to the corn market
  • South American weather conditions should improve, with rains in Argentina and Brazil
  • Blizzard conditions across the PNW and northern plains will slow movement there
  • Corn export sales are 53% behind a year ago
  • Domestic demand from feeders and crushers has helped basis remain historically strong


  • Jan up 1 @ 14.48
  • Private exporters reported sales of 264,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year and 198,000 mt to unknown during the same period
  • China’s producer price index came out lower than expected – this could mean lower inflation but also mean reduced imports of raw materials
  • About 19 million Chinese citizens are being tested for covid in southern China
  • CONAB increased their projection of Brazil’s soybean production 1.1 mmt (to 153.5 mmt)

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  • Dec wheat down 15 @ 8.13Dec KC down 8 @ 9.38, & Dec MNPLS down 8 @ 9.42
  • The UN and possibly NATO are pushing for sanctions to be lifted on a key Russian bank – this would allow Russia to increase grain and fertilizer exports
  • Russia is on pace to meet the USDA’s 42 mmt wheat export goal but some think it could be as much as 44-47 mmt
  • US exports have been struggling, with prices higher than France, Germany, and Russia
  • The US Dollar Index yesterday fell to the lowest level in weeks which may ease pressure on wheat


  • Dec LC down 0.550 @ 152.500 & Nov FC down 0.050 @ 178.225
  • Anticipation for steady to higher cash this week
  • Support should come from higher slaughter pace and stronger cutouts
  • Packers do not have sufficient cattle on hand
  • There is still concern about demand down the road
  • Choice cuts up 0.39 and select up 0.13
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/8: down 0.32 @ 176.59


  • Dec hogs down 0.275 @ 85.300 & Dec pork cutout down 0.525 @ 95.450
  • Slaughter volume is strong and ahead of last year
  • Hog weights are below a year ago – hogs are being pulled forward to maintain chain speeds
  • Cutouts are trending lower which does not provide support
  • There is a chart gap well below the market on Feb hog futures
  • National Direct Afternoon report gained 2.45
  • Hog slaughter projected at 491K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/9: down 0.60 @ 90.28


Brandon Doherty

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