TFM Midday Update 11-10-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

  • Dec corn down 7 @ 6.57
  • USDA reported an increase of 10.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23
  • The Mexican president said that starting in 2024 they will no longer import US GMO corn
  • Ethanol production was 1.051 million barrels per day last week
  • Brazil has more rain expected and conditions look favorable for the 1st corn crop
  • National corn basis is the strongest in 10 years (in the face of Mississippi River problems)

SOYBEANS

  • Jan down 23 @ 14.29
  • USDA reported an increase of 29.2 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23
  • Argentina may have another soybean dollar policy in December
  • USDA’s 220 mb 22/23 soybean carryout estimate is the lowest in 7 years
  • January soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange remain expensive, around the equivalent of $18.79 per bushel
  • The USDA lowered the estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop to 49.5 mmt (from 51 mmt)

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WHEAT

  • Dec wheat down 7 @ 8.00, Dec KC down 10 @ 9.20, & Dec MNPLS down 8 @ 9.30
  • USDA reported an increase of 11.8 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23
  • News reports suggest that Russia and Ukraine will meet in Geneva on Friday to discuss an extension of the export corridor deal
  • Argentina said their wheat crop is only 11.8 mmt (vs the USDA’s 15.5 mmt)
  • US Dollar Index is sharply lower after CPI data had a lower-than-expected increase this morning

CATTLE

  • Dec LC up 0.250 @ 151.825 & Nov FC up 0.500 @ 178.225
  • Beef net export sales of 13,700 mt
  • Cash trade was steady in both the north and south
  • Slaughter pace is still above a year ago, an indication of strong demand
  • Feedlots may not want to hold out for higher cash with a winter storm moving across the northern US
  • Choice cuts down 0.27 and select down 0.83
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/9: down 0.29 @ 176.30

HOGS

  • Dec hogs down 0.375 @ 84.900 & Dec pork cutout down 0.175 @ 95.275
  • Pork net export sales of 10,800 mt
  • Packers are able to obtain sufficient hogs to maintain slaughter pace
  • Hog weights are declining with current weights 6.6 pounds below last year
  • Cutouts continue to show weakness
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.48
  • Hog slaughter projected at 491K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/10: down 0.82 @ 89.46

Author

Brandon Doherty

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