TFM Midday Update 11-11-2024

CORN

So far today the corn market is softer at midday with December showing the most strength as it trades near the lower end of its range, with carryover weakness from lower wheat.
China’s agricultural ministry reported that China’s bumper corn harvest close to being complete, leaving the country with sufficient corn supplies. Although continued rainfall in northeastern the regions may compromise grain quality and transportation.
The USDA released its monthly supply/demand report on Friday. They showed average corn yield dropping more than expected to 183.1 bpa, which helped bring projected 24/25 ending stocks down to 1.938 billion bushels.
After the market closed on Friday, the Commitment of Traders report was released, showing that managed funds’ corn net position shifted to net long for the first time since August 2023, to 22,043 contracts.

Soybeans are currently near the low end of the trading range after hitting resistance near Friday’s highs and reversing. Lower soybean oil is likely weighing on soybeans as it reversed from posting fresh highs overnight. Meanwhile meal is higher on the day as it remains largely rangebound for the month.
Patria Agronegocios reported that Brazil’s soybean planting is ahead of last year’s pace. The firm estimated that 68.36% of the soybean crop has been planted so far, versus 61.28% a year ago.
Friday the USDA released its November supply/demand projections for the 24/25 crop year. Yield projections were dropped from 53.1 bpa last month to 51.7 bpa. This lowered projected 24/25 ending stocks much more than expected to 470 million bushels from 550 mb in October.
Managed funds were relatively quiet in the soybean market in the week ending Nov. 5. Funds bought a net 2,114 contracts, which brought their net short position for that week to 70,112 soybean futures contracts.

The wheat complex remains sharply lower at midday led by losses in the Chicago contracts after traders came out selling Sunday evening as much needed rain moved through HRW country, with more expected this weekend.
Ukraine’s 24/25 grain production and export projections remain unchanged from last month according to analyst APK-Inform. Production is seen at 52.5 million metric tons, with exports remaining at 37.3 mmt versus 51 mmt for 23/24.
Friday’s November WASDE report didn’t offer any significant market moving news. The USDA raised US wheat ending stocks for the 24/25 marketing year 3 million bushels to 815 mb, from October.
Managed funds were very quiet in the Chicago wheat market in the week ending Nov. 5. Managed funds bought a mere net 391 Chicago wheat futures contracts, which isn’t very surprising considering the lack of price movement during that time. Managed funds’ overall Chicago wheat net short position was 30,781 contracts.

Scott Masters