TFM Midday Update 11-12-2025

CORN

Corn futures show mixed activity through midday trading, with downward pressure as market participants reposition ahead of Friday’s USDA data release. December corn is up at 4.33 ¼.
A corn yield decline of 2.7 bpa from September is expected in Friday’s USDA report, though ending stocks are projected to rise slightly.
President Trump has been hinting that a trade deal with India is close, as he mentioned it again yesterday.
Reports suggest that India may allow U.S. corn imports for ethanol production. Meanwhile, the U.S. ethanol production report has been delayed until tomorrow due to the Veterans Day holiday.
Michael Cordonnier has left his South American production estimates unchanged but expressed increased concern over potential safrinha corn planting delays in Brazil, citing the ongoing slow soybean planting pace in parts of Mato Grosso and Goiás.

Soybean futures shift to mixed at midday, with no signs of Chinese buying interest so far this week but traders remain optimistic. Both soybeans and soybean oil are under pressure, while soybean meal is trading mixed. November soybeans are down at 11.13.
COFCO reportedly signed a deal late last week to purchase Brazilian soybeans and soybean oil. However, there has been no official confirmation from China regarding any purchase plans for U.S. soybeans following the Trump–Xi meeting two weeks ago.
EU member nations are reportedly pushing for a one-year delay in the implementation of the EUDR deforestation regulations, which applied minor pressure to soybean meal prices yesterday.
Rainfall is expected across parts of Brazil in the near term, but drier conditions are forecast for the southern regions next week following a wetter-than-normal start to the planting season.

Wheat futures turn mixed at midday, as traders anticipate that Friday’s USDA report will show higher ending stocks and see limited potential for a bullish surprise. December Chicago wheat is down at 5.35 ¼. While December KC wheat is up at 5.25.
Globally, Ukraine reports that winter wheat planting is 94.3% complete. Russia’s seaborne wheat exports in October were down 1.7% from a year ago, while French soft red winter (SRW) wheat production increased slightly to 33.3 million tons, up from 33.2 million last month and roughly 30% above last year’s poor crop.
Following the recent purchase of two cargoes of U.S. wheat, any signs of additional Chinese buying interest could trigger a bullish market reaction.
Global wheat demand appears to be gaining momentum. Jordan purchased 60,000 tons, Algeria 150,000–170,000 tons, and Tunisia 125,000 tons of soft red winter (SRW) wheat and 100,000 tons of durum wheat. These purchases follow last week’s 500,000-ton purchase by Egypt.

Lauren VandenLangenberg