TFM Midday Update 11-13-2023


  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher in quiet trade, with support from higher soybean prices. This morning, December corn made a new two year low at $4.61.
  • This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 143,637 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year. Exports have been slow, and most sales have been to Mexico.
  • In Brazil, the northern regions remain hot and dry with temperatures expected to rise. This will likely cause replanting of soybeans, which would delay safrinha corn planting.
  • Domestically, ethanol margins are very profitable despite prices falling to two-year lows. Export demand for corn would be very poor without the business from Mexico.


  • Soybeans are trading sharply higher near midday, after gapping higher on Sunday night’s open and receiving support from a rally in soybean meal that has the December contract at new contract highs. Soybean oil is slightly lower despite higher crude oil.
  • Due to Brazil’s hot and dry weather, it is being estimated that 20-25% of the soybean crop will need to be replanted, which would also have implications for corn plantings.
  • This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
  • The USDA announced over 100 million bushels of soybean sales last week, which were mainly to China in a big turnaround from the low exports a few months ago.


  • All three wheat products are trading lower despite sharply higher soybeans and higher corn as the lack of export sales weighs on prices.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the 23/24 wheat crop production is still at 15.4 mmt, but harvest has advanced to 14.4% complete, versus 9.3% last week.
  • In last week’s WASDE report, Russian wheat production was estimated higher by 5 mmt to 90 mmt, but world wheat ending stocks are still forecast to be the lowest in 15 years.
  • While Russia has been dominating global exports, last week their FOB values moved higher by $5-$7/mt in a sign that global prices may be increasing.


Amanda Brill

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