TFM Midday Update 11-14-2025

CORN

Corn continues to trade higher at midday ahead of today’s USDA Supply and Demand report, as traders await the first data release from the agency since the 43-day government shutdown that began in September. December corn futures are trading higher at 4.41 ¾.
The USDA’s Supply and Demand report is also expected to include adjustments to corn yields and feed demand. Current estimates project corn yields at 184.0 BPA, down from 186.7 in September, with feed demand edging slightly higher to 2.136 billion bushels, compared to 2.110 billion two months ago. Traders will also be watching the accumulated “morning flash” export sales data closely, as this will be the first update since the shutdown began. All data is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. Central Time.
CONAB has pegged Brazil’s corn production at 138.8 million metric tons, slightly below last year’s output of 139.7 million metric tons.
Argentina’s corn planting is reported to be 37% complete, with 76% of the crop rated in good to excellent condition.

Soybeans are trading mixed ahead of the USDA’s Supply and Demand report, set for release at 11 a.m. Central Time, along with the accumulated morning flash sales data that have been held since the government shutdown. November soybeans are trading higher at 11.34 The entire soy complex is extending gains midday.
NOPA’s October crush report will be released on Monday, with the pre-report estimate at 209.522 million bushels—setting a new record for the month.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that Argentina’s soybean planting is now 12.9% complete, with soil moisture conditions remaining favorable. In Brazil, rainfall is expected to pick back up later this week.
Soybeans continue to show some strength despite the absence of recent Chinese purchases. Traders remain concerned, as China typically buys at lower price levels, and Brazilian soybeans have continued to offer better value, especially with the 13% tariff still applied to U.S. beans.

Wheat is trading higher at midday, building on the strength seen earlier in Friday’s session. December Chicago wheat is up at 5.37 ½.
Wheat was pushed higher following reports of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian port, which handles exports of 2 million barrels of crude oil per day. Expectations of a Russian retaliation have lifted both wheat and crude oil prices early on Friday.
Traders do not anticipate major changes in wheat markets during today’s release of the USDA Supply and Demand report.
U.S. wheat remains overpriced compared to much of the world, with Argentina offering bargain wheat at $208–$209/mt, as the country is in the midst of a record harvest.

Lauren VandenLangenberg