TFM Midday Update 11-15-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower near midday, after trading higher earlier this morning following friendly Producer Price Index data, which showed inflation receding. Yesterday’s CPI data was also friendly and brough the dollar to a two-month low.
This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 124,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Values of corn on a FOB basis have shown a discount for US corn compared to Brazil, but Brazilian exports remain active with ANEC expecting November shipments at 8.3 mmt.
The severe drought in the Amazon region of Brazil has caused water levels on rivers used for grain transportation to fall lower than expected, which is limiting barge movement for corn and soybeans.

Soybeans are trading lower today, after giving up earlier strength from overnight. Soybean meal is slightly lower, while soybean oil is higher.
Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 5.106 million tons in November, which would compare to 1.918 in the same month a year ago.
NOPA October US soybean crush is expected to be a record 187.237 mb. If that number is realized, October crush would be up 13.2% from September’s crush of 165.456 mb.
Analysts are expecting that the El Nino weather pattern will support crude palm oil prices, as major palm oil producing countries’ output will likely decline in 2024.

Wheat is mixed today, with Chicago and Minneapolis are slightly lower, but KC higher after yesterday’s friendly CPI data, and today’s friendly PPI data caused the dollar to drop significantly, showing that inflation may be easing.
Ukrainian grain exports have fallen by 30% year over year due to Russia’s attacking of port cities with 5.2 mmt of wheat exported for the season, which is down 12% from last year.
Wheat production in Kazakhstan has fallen by an estimated 5.6% from the last update or 13.0 mmt due to heavy rains and a delayed harvest.
Russia continues to dominate global wheat exports with the cheapest wheat available, and US exports have fallen sharply to the lowest levels in 52 years.

Amanda Brill