TFM Midday Update 11-16-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 4 @ 6.63
  • Corn rallied sharply yesterday after news broke that a stray Russian missile struck Poland killing two civilians, but has given up those gains as the incident is being treated as an accident
  • Tensions are escalated with Russia and NATO nations following the strike and it is even more unclear whether the export corridor will remain open
  • There was a sale this morning of 1,866,900 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico with 1,242,060 mt for delivery during 22/23 and the rest for 23/24
  • Cash markets in the Western Corn Belt have been firm, causing the Dec/March calendar spread to rally


  • Jan soybeans down 28 @ 14.29
  • Beans have given back their gains from yesterday where news of the missile strike caused all grains to rally, but as the dust has settled, so have bean prices
  • Soybeans are not typically sensitive to news regarding the war so it is unsurprising that prices moved back to their levels from early yesterday
  • Crude oil is lower putting pressure on bean oil, and bean meal is trading lower too
  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush came out for October at 184.464 mb vs the expected 184.5 mb, and above the previous month’s 158.1 mb

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  • Dec wheat down 15 @ 8.14, Dec KC down 9 @ 9.54, & Dec MNPLS down 12 @ 9.62
  • Wheat has given up yesterday’s gains along with the rest of the grain complex as yesterday’s news gets digested and Poland has caused the incident an accident
  • There are only three days until the export corridor agreement expires and this recent event has made Russia’s position on the matter unclear
  • Yesterday’s main concern was that NATO would get involved as a result of the stray missile hitting Poland but leaders are weary of escalating things further
  • A sale was reported this morning of 150,000 mt of HRS wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 22/23 marketing year


  • Dec LC up 0.625 @ 151.900 & Nov FC down 0.175 @ 175.550
  • Both live cattle and deferred feeder cattle contracts are higher as trade expects even to slightly higher cash trade from last week
  • Yesterday’s news of a missile striking Poland sent corn rallying higher which pushed feeders lower, but the initial shock has worn off and feeders are recovering
  • Friday’s Cattle on Feed report has estimates for on feed at 98.3%, placed at 96.3%, and marketed at 100.8%
  • Choice cuts up 0.38 and select down 1.45
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 129K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/15: down 0.05 @ 175.18


  • Dec hogs down 0.075 @ 85.200 & Dec pork cutout down 0.100 @ 95.800
  • Hogs are trading lower this morning as cash did not rise as much as anticipated and the cutouts fell by 0.86
  • Cash is currently even with Dec futures so further gains in cash tomorrow may give prices some support if the packers stay aggressive
  • Yesterday the June, July, and August contracts made new contract highs as relations with China seem to improve
  • National Direct Afternoon report rose 1.46
  • Hog slaughter projected at 491K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/16: down 0.12 @ 88.53


Amanda Brill

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