TFM Midday Update 11-16-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 4 @ 6.63
Corn rallied sharply yesterday after news broke that a stray Russian missile struck Poland killing two civilians, but has given up those gains as the incident is being treated as an accident
Tensions are escalated with Russia and NATO nations following the strike and it is even more unclear whether the export corridor will remain open
There was a sale this morning of 1,866,900 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico with 1,242,060 mt for delivery during 22/23 and the rest for 23/24
Cash markets in the Western Corn Belt have been firm, causing the Dec/March calendar spread to rally

Jan soybeans down 28 @ 14.29
Beans have given back their gains from yesterday where news of the missile strike caused all grains to rally, but as the dust has settled, so have bean prices
Soybeans are not typically sensitive to news regarding the war so it is unsurprising that prices moved back to their levels from early yesterday
Crude oil is lower putting pressure on bean oil, and bean meal is trading lower too
Yesterday’s NOPA crush came out for October at 184.464 mb vs the expected 184.5 mb, and above the previous month’s 158.1 mb

Like what you’re reading?

Dec wheat down 15 @ 8.14, Dec KC down 9 @ 9.54, & Dec MNPLS down 12 @ 9.62
Wheat has given up yesterday’s gains along with the rest of the grain complex as yesterday’s news gets digested and Poland has caused the incident an accident
There are only three days until the export corridor agreement expires and this recent event has made Russia’s position on the matter unclear
Yesterday’s main concern was that NATO would get involved as a result of the stray missile hitting Poland but leaders are weary of escalating things further
A sale was reported this morning of 150,000 mt of HRS wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 22/23 marketing year

Dec LC up 0.625 @ 151.900 & Nov FC down 0.175 @ 175.550
Both live cattle and deferred feeder cattle contracts are higher as trade expects even to slightly higher cash trade from last week
Yesterday’s news of a missile striking Poland sent corn rallying higher which pushed feeders lower, but the initial shock has worn off and feeders are recovering
Friday’s Cattle on Feed report has estimates for on feed at 98.3%, placed at 96.3%, and marketed at 100.8%
Choice cuts up 0.38 and select down 1.45
Cattle slaughter projected at 129K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/15: down 0.05 @ 175.18

Dec hogs down 0.075 @ 85.200 & Dec pork cutout down 0.100 @ 95.800
Hogs are trading lower this morning as cash did not rise as much as anticipated and the cutouts fell by 0.86
Cash is currently even with Dec futures so further gains in cash tomorrow may give prices some support if the packers stay aggressive
Yesterday the June, July, and August contracts made new contract highs as relations with China seem to improve
National Direct Afternoon report rose 1.46
Hog slaughter projected at 491K
CME Lean Hog Index for 11/16: down 0.12 @ 88.53

Amanda Brill