TFM Midday Update 11-16-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower today due to improved rain chances in South America and pressure from sharply lower soybeans. Export sales were good and are providing some support.
For the week ending November 9, the USDA reported an increase of 71.2 mb of corn export sales for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 26.9 mb were below the 42.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Columbia, and Honduras.
In South America, improved chances of rain are forecast from this Sunday through the end of November or longer, in what would be a reversal from the hot and dry conditions that the crop was planted in.
Dry weather in the U.S. is helping the corn harvest wrap up on a high note, but the expected production of 15.234 bb of new corn supplies is pressuring prices.

Soybeans are sharply lower today following an updated weather forecast for South America, which is calling for better rain chances throughout November. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
While central and northern Brazil, along with Argentina, are expected to get more frequent showers, southern Brazil continues to get rain and is too wet.
Following a string of sales recently to both China and unknown, another flash sale was reported this morning of 220,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24.
For the week ending November 9, the USDA reported an increase of 144.0 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, a marketing year high. Last week’s export shipments of 73.2 mb were above the 30.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to China, the Netherlands, and Bangladesh.

Wheat is trading lower today in what appears to be a risk-off day for most commodities. Export sales for wheat were poor again, but both corn and soybeans had strong weeks and are trading lower anyways.
For the week ending November 9, the USDA reported an increase of 6.5 mb of wheat export sales, which was 50% lower than the previous week. Last week’s export shipments of 11.4 mb were below the 14.8 mb needed each week, and primary destinations were to the Philippines, Mexico, and South Korea.
Ukrainian grain exports have fallen by 30% year over year due to Russia’s attacking of port cities, with 5.2 mmt of wheat exported for the season, which is down 12% from last year.
While Australia’s wheat crop has struggled with hot and dry conditions, harvest has been ahead of pace with yields so far coming in better than expected, but still more than a third below last year.

Amanda Brill