TFM Midday Update 11-17-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 6 @ 6.59
  • Corn is trading lower despite solid net export sales that came in at 1.17 metric tons, above trade estimates, but renewal of the Black Sea grain deal is pressuring futures
  • Ethanol stocks have fallen sharply by 894,000 million barrels, the lowest levels since December of 2021
  • Yesterday’s data showed weekly ethanol production down 40,000 barrels per day last week to 1.011 million bpd, the lowest in five weeks
  • The Mississippi River is on track to begin a 9-foot rise within 9 days according to the National Weather Service, paving the way for renewed grain transport


  • Jan soybeans down 17 @ 14.12
  • Soybeans, meal, and bean oil are all trading lower today as the dollar moves higher, pushing crude oil futures down as well
  • Export sales showed a solid week for beans at 3.03 million tons, far exceeding trade expectations
  • Veg oil markets are taking a hit as prices climbed to a point which began to affect demand, and palm oil has fallen 10% in just a week, with bean oil posting big losses as well
  • Crush margins are starting to slip with the January spread now trading at 2.50 per bushel compared to a high of 2.79 on October 31, but the margin is still profitable for processors

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  • Dec wheat down 17 @ 8.00, Dec KC down 20 @ 9.35, & Dec MNPLS down 17 @ 9.49
  • Wheat is lower as a result of the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal, but as tensions escalate between Russia and Ukraine, who knows how long that will last
  • Export sales for wheat were poor at 0.29 million tons, on the low end of trade estimates
  • The Climate Prediction Center said that it sees a 57% chance of climate conditions switching to ENSO-neutral from La Nina this winter by end of the April time frame
  • Some private estimates still see Australia’s wheat production between 38-40 mmt, but quality is the issue as their fields have been flooded


  • Dec LC up 0.300 @ 152.100 & Jan FC up 2.075 @ 179.550
  • Both live and feeder cattle are trading higher today with feeders leading the way as grains fall
  • Cash traded at 150 in the South and 242 in the North, both fully steady with last week, but falling boxed beef prices are a concern for futures
  • Friday’s Cattle on Feed report has estimates for on feed at 98.3%, placed at 96.3%, and marketed at 100.8%
  • Choice cuts up 1.27 and select down 0.41
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 129K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/16: down 0.20 @ 174.98


  • Dec hogs down 0.050 @ 85.525 & Dec pork cutout up 0.100 @ 96.000
  • Dec hogs are trading lower while Feb and April contracts are slightly higher as Dec moves to keep in step with cash
  • While cash moved slightly higher, futures are being held back by a drop in the cutout of 2.07
  • Weights increased 0.3 lbs last week to average 283.8 lbs, but still 6.5 lbs below a year ago
  • National Direct Afternoon report rose 0.61
  • Hog slaughter projected at 492K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/17: down 0.31 @ 88.22


Amanda Brill

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