TFM Midday Update 11-17-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 6 @ 6.59
Corn is trading lower despite solid net export sales that came in at 1.17 metric tons, above trade estimates, but renewal of the Black Sea grain deal is pressuring futures
Ethanol stocks have fallen sharply by 894,000 million barrels, the lowest levels since December of 2021
Yesterday’s data showed weekly ethanol production down 40,000 barrels per day last week to 1.011 million bpd, the lowest in five weeks
The Mississippi River is on track to begin a 9-foot rise within 9 days according to the National Weather Service, paving the way for renewed grain transport

Jan soybeans down 17 @ 14.12
Soybeans, meal, and bean oil are all trading lower today as the dollar moves higher, pushing crude oil futures down as well
Export sales showed a solid week for beans at 3.03 million tons, far exceeding trade expectations
Veg oil markets are taking a hit as prices climbed to a point which began to affect demand, and palm oil has fallen 10% in just a week, with bean oil posting big losses as well
Crush margins are starting to slip with the January spread now trading at 2.50 per bushel compared to a high of 2.79 on October 31, but the margin is still profitable for processors

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Dec wheat down 17 @ 8.00, Dec KC down 20 @ 9.35, & Dec MNPLS down 17 @ 9.49
Wheat is lower as a result of the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal, but as tensions escalate between Russia and Ukraine, who knows how long that will last
Export sales for wheat were poor at 0.29 million tons, on the low end of trade estimates
The Climate Prediction Center said that it sees a 57% chance of climate conditions switching to ENSO-neutral from La Nina this winter by end of the April time frame
Some private estimates still see Australia’s wheat production between 38-40 mmt, but quality is the issue as their fields have been flooded

Dec LC up 0.300 @ 152.100 & Jan FC up 2.075 @ 179.550
Both live and feeder cattle are trading higher today with feeders leading the way as grains fall
Cash traded at 150 in the South and 242 in the North, both fully steady with last week, but falling boxed beef prices are a concern for futures
Friday’s Cattle on Feed report has estimates for on feed at 98.3%, placed at 96.3%, and marketed at 100.8%
Choice cuts up 1.27 and select down 0.41
Cattle slaughter projected at 129K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/16: down 0.20 @ 174.98

Dec hogs down 0.050 @ 85.525 & Dec pork cutout up 0.100 @ 96.000
Dec hogs are trading lower while Feb and April contracts are slightly higher as Dec moves to keep in step with cash
While cash moved slightly higher, futures are being held back by a drop in the cutout of 2.07
Weights increased 0.3 lbs last week to average 283.8 lbs, but still 6.5 lbs below a year ago
National Direct Afternoon report rose 0.61
Hog slaughter projected at 492K
CME Lean Hog Index for 11/17: down 0.31 @ 88.22

Amanda Brill