TFM Midday Update 11-18-20

CORN

  • Dec corn up 6 @ 4.26 & March up 4 @ 4.31
  • Ethanol production for the week avg 962K barrel per day – down 6.87% from last yr
  • Daily export sales of 140K mt to delivery unknown destination
  • Rumors of China interested in buying, but no sales yet
  • Argentina rainfall Mon-Wed this week, will advance from southwest to northeast
  • Uncertainty about S. American weather keeps prices supported
  • Preliminary Open Interest saw corn futures up roughly 25,700 contracts

SOYBEANS

  • Jan up 15 @ 11.85
  • U.S. Soybean Export Council expects 2020 Chinese imports at record 100 MMT
  • Southern Brazil rains begin Tues-Thursday from Mato Grosso to Parana 1-2” expected
  • Soybean oil & palm oil futures hit another new high this morning
  • Market is over-bought, however S. American weather & demand lend keep support
  • Preliminary Open Interest saw soybeans up 4,400 contracts

WHEAT

  • Dec Chi up 4 @ 5.99, Dec KC up 3 @ 5.56, Dec MNPLS flat @ 5.49
  • Managed money net position: 32,633 contracts long Chicago wheat
  • Southern Russia expected to snow/rain today, hopeful for next yr’s crop conditions
  • No “new” bullish news, wheat tends to just run along with corn & soy for now
  • Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up 2,500

CATTLE

  • Dec LC down .25 @ 11.07 & Nov FC down .17 @ 137.20
  • Surge in beef prices, raises questions of is this demand driven?
  • Projected slaughter for today est. at 121K head
  • Cash prices starting around $110 for LC & 137.55 as of 11/16 for FC cash index
  • O/I: -3,804 contracts for Dec LC & O/I: +793 contracts for Nov FC

HOGS

  • Dec Hogs down .32 @ 65.15 & Dec Pork Cutout down .72 @ 79.87
  • Less demands expected in 2021 due to China’s pull-back
  • Technicals look weak, could see a further pull-back need to hold 65.00
  • Cash lean index & futures spread continues to narrow
  • Hog slaughter 491K estimated today
  • Cash lean index @ 69.73 for 11/16
  • O/I: -3,115 contracts for Dec

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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