TFM Midday Update 11-18-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn up 3 @ 6.71
  • Corn is higher today now that news of the Black Sea grain deal being renewed has blown over and the market can focus on yesterday’s big export sales numbers
  • Export sales commitments rose by 45.9 mb on the week, the largest of the marketing year and better than the 35.3 mb needed
  • Yesterday’s sales were the 11th largest on record for the second week of November
  • The massive sale reported yesterday to Mexico will ensure another solid export sales report next week but continued follow through will be needed on the export front


  • Jan soybeans up 13 @ 14.30
  • Beans are bouncing off yesterday’s lows to move higher as the bottom of their range was respected from a technical standpoint
  • Bean oil is trading higher despite another sharp drop in crude oil which has prices below 80 dollars a barrel, and bean meal is up as well
  • Yesterday’s export sales number of 111.3 mb was massive and was the fourth largest week on record for any week on the calendar
  • Commitments as a percentage of the USDA forecast at 64.6% are the largest since 2020 and the second largest since 2016

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  • Dec wheat down 1 @ 8.07, Dec KC down 3 @ 9.35, & Dec MNPLS up 1 @ 9.55
  • Wheat is trading higher but lagging the gains of corn and beans as their export sales from yesterday were poor
  • The market has been able to shake off the news that the Black Sea corridor would be extended for another 120 days which had previously put so much pressure on wheat contracts
  • Total commitments of 469.7 mb are down 6% from a year ago, and total commitments as of the second week of November are the lowest on record since 1991
  • 150,000 mt of wheat was sold to Iraq earlier this week which will be supportive in next week’s export sales report


  • Dec LC up 0.350 @ 153.100 & Jan FC up 0.225 @ 180.175
  • Live cattle are a bit higher with higher corn, and feeders are moving higher as well
  • Cash business in the South mostly wrapped up between 150 and 151, steady to a dollar higher than last week, and trade in the North at 242, steady with last week
  • Today’s Cattle on Feed report has estimates for on feed at 98.3%, placed at 96.3%, and marketed at 100.8%
  • Choice cuts up 0.01 and select up 0.39
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/17: up 0.41 @ 175.39


  • Dec hogs down 0.875 @ 84.100 & Dec pork cutout UNCH @ 95.500
  • Hogs are trading lower following a drop in cash and a drop in the cutout of 1.00 which has been trending lower
  • Weekly exports yesterday were decent at 25,000 mt, but China was not listed as a notable buyer
  • Hogs are technically overbought and may be subject to some selling pressure
  • National Direct Afternoon report fell 2.88
  • Hog slaughter projected at 489K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/18: down 0.08 @ 88.14


Amanda Brill

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