TFM Midday Update 11-2-2020

CORN

  • Dec down 3 @ 3.95
  • Weekly export inspection 283.7K mt versus 636K mt last week
  • Managed money net position: 276.2K long
  • Daily export sales of 204K mt of corn – unknown delivery
  • Argentina weather will be mostly dry this week
  • Bear outside market forces but demand is still strong
  • Funds net sellers of 3K contracts
  • Dec support @ 3.93 & resistance @ 4.01

SOYBEANS

  • Nov down 7 @ 10.49
  • Weekly export inspection 1.483M mt versus 2.664M mt last week
  • Managed money net position: 232.7K long
  • Brazil rainfall most significant in Mato Gross through Goias over the weekend
  • Virus case surge & improved Brazilian weather could push prices lower
  • Funds net buyers of 3K contracts
  • Jan support @ 10.34 & resistance @ 10.56

WHEAT

  • Dec Chi up 7 @ 6.05, Dec KC up 9 @ 5.51 , Dec MPLS up 2 @ 5.54
  • Weekly export inspections 293.9K mt versus 363.8K last week
  • Managed money net position: 48.8K long Chi, 41.4K long KC
  • Southern Russia received rains – however most too little too late to help the driest areas
  • U.S. HRW wheat will get additional rains into early next week
  • Funds net sellers of 4K contracts SRW
  • CHI resistance @ 5.87 & support @ 6.10, KC resistance @ 5.32 & support @ 5.48 & MPLS resistance @ 5.44 & support @ 5.57

CATTLE

  • Dec LC down 0.42 @ 107.87 & Nov FC down 0.82 @ 136.57
  • The industry may be better equipped to hold slaughter normal
  • Futures trying to adjust positions from last week’s shift higher
  • Traders closely monitoring beef values – still concern for demand
  • Beef cutouts expected to be higher with light box movement.
  • Friday’s slaughter est. at 114K head, 4K below a year ago
  • No cash prices for LC & @ 136.76 as of 10/29 for FC cash index
  • O/I: -3,359 contracts for Dec LC & O/I: -957 contracts for Nov FC

HOGS

  • Dec down 0.75 @ 64.82
  • Weak cash trend and turn down in pork values bearish
  • Inability to hold prices above $65, could spark further selling pressure
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 488K
  • Cash lean index @ 74.49 as of 10/29 – premium above futures but still dropping
  • O/I: -663 contracts

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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