TFM Midday Update 11-20-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher again today with support from the soy complex and would be on track for a second consecutively higher close at this level.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report pegged the corn harvest at 93% complete which was below expectations and the average trade guess by a few points. Michigan and Pennsylvania are the furthest behind with 30% left to harvest.
In Argentina, news of the election of Javier Milei and his intention to drastically lower export taxes on agricultural products has farmers holding off on selling their grain until the tax changes are in effect, and this has been supportive short term.
Brazilian summer corn planting for 23/24 is now reported at 86.3% complete which is slightly below the 5-year average. Mato Grosso is behind at 81.2% as it deals with the bulk of the hot and dry weather.

Soybeans are trading higher today but have backed off their bigger gains earlier this morning that saw futures as much as 21 cents higher. Soybean meal was initially higher but has reversed lower, while soybean oil is now higher.
Following yesterday’s bullish key reversal in soybeans, the January contract has now gained 48 cents from yesterday’s low with support from lower-than-expected precipitation amounts in Brazil.
Yesterday’s export inspections were ok at 59 mb but are still trailing behind last year with total inspections down 8% from a year ago. Exports to China have also improved significantly, but total exports are also behind last year by 21%.
In South America, scattered showers fell across Brazil and Argentina yesterday, but forecasts have turned drier and there are more reports of farmers abandoning their soy crops to plant cotton instead.

Wheat is trading higher near midday with support from firmer corn and soybeans after choppy trade earlier.
The main story for wheat has been the lack of export demand and the grip that Russia has had on global exports. Without significant demand to speak of, futures continue to slip and make new contract lows.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed wheat at 95% planted with the good to excellent rating rising one point to 48%, but the poor to very poor rating is at 17% and Kansas is worse at 32%.
Yesterday’s export inspections of 13.2 mb were better than the previous weeks, but exports are still over 90 mb behind last year.

Amanda Brill