TFM Midday Update 11-20-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly lower today in quiet trade ahead of Thanksgiving and remains rangebound. Better chances of rain in Brazil have had little effect on prices so far.
  • Last night, libertarian candidate for the Argentinian presidency, Javier Milei, won the election, and traders are expecting a decline in the peso and large tax cuts as the country deals with massive 140% inflation.
  • While Brazil now has better rain chances through the rest of the month, temperatures have begun to soar and reach as high as 110 degrees in Mato Grosso, a main agriculture state.
  • With US corn futures near their lows, US corn is now the cheapest feed grain in the world, and exports have been strong running 33% higher than last year.


  • Soybeans are trading higher today despite scattered showers across South America and despite Javier Malei being elected in Argentina whose agricultural policies could pressure prices.
  • In the driest areas of Brazil, there have been many reports of farmers being forced to abandon their soybeans in favor of planting cotton or another crop in Mato Grosso.
  • In China, the General Administration of Customs has reported that October soy imports from Brazil were up 71% from the previous year at 4.8 mmt.
  • Soybean meal is trading lower today after becoming overbought recently, while soybean oil is higher with support from palm oil and good domestic demand.


  • Wheat is trading lower today on a lack of fresh news and continuously poor export sales. Russia’s wheat prices have been very cheap at $230 to $235/mt on an FOB basis.
  • Overall sales of US wheat are 7% lower than a year ago with sales for HRW even worse, and while the recent decline in the dollar should be supportive for exports, there has been little activity.
  • In Argentina, 25% of the wheat crop has reportedly been harvested, and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has dropped the estimated production to 14.7 mmt which is below the USDA’s 15.0 mmt estimate.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back wheat for the second week in a row, this time buying 2,951 contracts and reducing their net short position to 89,311 contracts.


Amanda Brill

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