TFM Midday Update 11-24-2020

CORN

  • Dec down 2 @ 4.24 & March down 1 @ 4.31
  • March put in a double-top at 4.35-3/4 yesterday – unable to push through
  • Central Brazil has seen 50-80% below normal precip in the last 60 days
  • Demand should stay strong, U.S. corn still the world’s cheapest feed grain
  • Ethanol margins have slipped into negative territory
  • Funds net buyers of 12K contracts & Preliminary O/I -9,000 contracts

SOYBEANS

  • Jan down 5 @ 11.86
  • Palm oil, soybean oil fall on Covid concerns – paved the way for today’s correction
  • Weather concerns shift to Mato Grosso, where drought & high temps are of concern
  • U.S. soybean balance sheet remains bullish, China still quiet this week
  • Despite current bearish weather, Brazil still expected to have a record crop
  • Funds net buyers of 1K contracts & Preliminary O/I -2,700 contracts

WHEAT

  • Dec Chi up 8 @ 6.06, Dec KC up 7 @ 5.58 , Dec MPLS up 3 @ 5.46
  • Winter wheat conditions decline to 43% good/excellent (2nd lowest score in 30 years)
  • Beneficial rains hitting southern U.S. Plains today
  • USD down currently 92.26 – inching closer to low of 9/1/2020 at 91.74
  • Funds net sellers of 4K contracts SRW & Preliminary O/I SRW futures -3,200 contracts

CATTLE

  • Dec LC up 1.45 @ 111.45 & Jan FC up 0.92 @ 139.90
  • Dec LC still holding resistance of 112.00 & 140.000 for FC
  • Trade focused on upward shifts in choice & cutout values
  • Friday’s slaughter estimated at 120K head
  • Cash prices around 111 for LC & @ 136.95 as of 11/20 for FC cash index
  • O/I: -3,059 contracts for Dec LC & O/I: -1,005 contracts for Jan FC

HOGS

  • Dec down 0.60 @ 64.35 & Dec Pork Cutout down 1.30 @ 79.60
  • Bullish -significant pork stock reductions in Cold Storage report
  • Bearish – lack of enthusiasm in both cash & pork cutout values
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 489K head
  • Cash Lean Index @ 67.83 as of 11/20
  • O/I: -2,033 contracts for Dec futures

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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