TFM Midday Update 11-24, 2023

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 56.4 mb of corn export sales for 23/24.
US weather looks mostly dry with cool temperatures. Furthermore, the Midwest looks to remain dry, but the southern part of the country may get some showers. This aligns with a typical El Nino weather pattern.
It is still raining too much in southern Brazil, but weather looks favorable in Argentina. Central and northern Brazil look like they are getting a break from the rainfall, but longer range forecasts do bring the rain back.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has said that Argentina’s corn planting is 26% complete.

The USDA reported an increase of 35.3 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25.
Private exporters reported sales of 129,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China, and 323,400 mt for delivery to unknown, both during the 23/24 marketing year.
Argentina’s crush is said to be down to about 25% of capacity because of a lack of soybeans. Additionally, farmers are said to not be selling. This is, in part, due to a possible devaluation of their currency, and the possibility that their new president may reduce export taxes.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has stated that Argentina’s soybean planting is 35% complete.

The USDA reported an increase of 6.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25.
Russia has reportedly set a 24 mmt grain export quota for wheat, barley, corn, and rye, February 15^th through the end of June. Additionally, they have issued a ban on Durum wheat exports from December 1^st to May 31^st.
For 2023, China has imported a record 10.8 mmt of wheat. That represents a 38% increase versus last year.
Argentina’s wheat harvest is now said to be 27% complete, and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is projecting a 14.7 mmt crop.

Brandon Doherty