TFM Midday Update 11-24-2025

CORN

Corn futures are fractionally higher at midday with March corn currently trading at 438.
Low volume trade is expected for much of the week given the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and half-day of trading on Friday.
Export inspections have had a record strong start to the marketing year now running 66% ahead of last year’s record pace.
U.S. corn remains the world’s cheapest feed grain for export; Southern Hemisphere supplies won’t ramp up until early to mid-2026.

Soybean futures are slightly lower to start the week with January beans down 1-1/2 cents currently at 1123.
USDA confirmed a 123,000 mt sale of U.S. soybeans to China this morning for 2025/26 delivery, pushing the running total since the Trump-Xi summit to ~2 million mt. China still needs ~10 million mt more by year-end to hit the 12 million mt commitment.
Near-term weather supports crop development in Argentina and Brazil, but La Niña’s influence points to drier conditions in December for Argentina and southern Brazil—potential yield risks if it strengthens.

Wheat futures are lower across the board to start the holiday-shortened trading week. December Chicago wheat futures are down 6 cents at 520-3/4. December KC wheat futures are down 4 cents at 507 and December spring wheat futures are down 2-1/2 cents at 562-1/2.
Argentinian wheat remains the cheapest wheat for export in the world trading near a $1 per bushel less than U.S. wheat to start the week.
A potential end to the Russia/Ukraine war could have a bearish influence on the wheat market. The Trump administration has put a deadline of Thursday for Ukraine to approve of the peace deal.

Keegan Madigan