TFM Midday Update 11-25-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn up 5 @ 6.69
Corn is trading higher this morning thanks to a big export sales number of 72.8 mb for the 22/23 marketing year, of which most was sent to Mexico
Export sales for the 23/24 marketing year were 24.7 mb, again mostly headed to Mexico, but shipments were just 18.2 mb, below the weekly average of 47.7 mb
Ethanol production rose last week to 1.041 million barrels per day despite the drop in crude prices which has supported domestic demand
The Federal Reserve has indicated that they may increase interest rates by a smaller amount in their next meeting

Jan soybeans up 4 @ 14.40
Soybeans are trading slightly higher after a relatively disappointing export sales number compared to corn
Sales last week were 25.4 mb for the 22/23 marketing year, but shipments were strong at 89.4 mb, well above the weekly average needed of 36.8 mb
Covid continues to ramp back up in China with 80 cities representing 80% of China’s GDP experiencing high Covid levels which creates demand worries
The drought in Argentina has put them seriously behind on planting pace, with only 19% planted, down from a 40% average for this time of year

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Dec wheat up 3 @ 7.95, Dec KC up 4 @ 9.34, & Dec MNPLS up 4 @ 9.62
Wheat is higher this morning and first notice day next week has shown signs of commercial demand in the hard wheat markets
Wheat sales for last week were 18.8 mb, and shipments were only 5.1 mb, well below the weekly average of 15.1 mb needed each week
Ships have begun leaving Ukraine again with the extension of the export deal, but at a slower pace with only 5 ships having left as of last week
112 vessels are in the water near Istanbul waiting inspection and are carrying nearly 12 million metric tons of grain and food shipment from Ukraine

Dec LC down 0.050 @ 153.300 & Jan FC down 0.325 @ 178.950
Both live and feeder cattle are trading lower after poor export sales and higher corn which is pressuring feeders
Net beef sales of 12,900 mt for 2022 were primarily for South Korea, China, and Japan, and exports were 17,300 mt
Cash is now trading at 155 in the South and 245 for Northern dressed, 3 and 4 dollars higher respectively
Choice cuts down 4.07 and select down 0.85
Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/23: up 0.19 @ 174.83

Dec hogs up 0.625 @ 84.575 & Dec pork cutout down 0.200 @ 93.000
Hogs are trading higher this morning after very strong export sales but a decline in cash and a drop in the cutout of 1.94
Net pork sales of 45,800 mt were primarily to Mexico, Japan, and Canada, and shipments were 33,200 mt
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.62
Hog slaughter projected at 470K
CME Lean Hog Index for 11/25: down 0.37 @ 86.17

Amanda Brill