TFM Midday Update 11-27-19

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!

Thursday, November 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

Friday, November 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 CT.



Corn futures traded 1 to 2 cents lower this morning, as front-month Dec is down 2-1/2 cents to 3.65, while Mar is down 1-3/4 to 3.76-1/2. Selling pressure continues in the corn market as prices have pushed through the lows of the week. First notice day for Dec corn is bringing some extra selling volatility as holders of long corn positions need to exit or move to different months before risking delivery on Friday. News is overall quiet, and the path of least resistance still stays softer.


Soybean futures are currently trading mixed, firmer in the front months with Jan beans up 1-1/4 to 8.85-1/2, Mar beans are up 3/4 cent to 8.99-1/2. Bean futures have dropped approximately 80 cents since their October highs, finding a little bit of short-covering in today’s session. Bean futures have been pressured by weakness in the Brazilian real, which is trading at its lowest point since September 2015 vs the U.S. dollar. In addition, bean futures may be seeing some support as the demand picture stays improved at these price levels.


Wheat futures are trading mixed. Front-month Dec Chi contract is down 1 cent to 5.29-1/4, while Mar is down 3/4 cent to 5.30-1/4. Some strength is noted in KC winter wheat contracts, as well as deferred Chi wheat contracts today. Global wheat prices have been rising, and with a lot of export activity globally this week, wheat futures have been seeing some support on the potential of seeing additional bushels sold. Global supplies weigh on prices and keep things choppy, but after a strong start to the week, wheat futures are at least holding most of that value.


Live cattle futures are currently trading firmer with Dec up 10 cents to 120.50 and Feb up 10 cents to 125.80. Feb contract did push to new contract highs in early trade this morning following through on a strong close in Tuesday afternoon’s trade. Money flow seems to be the strength in the cattle market, as speculative funds have been growing in long positions. Forecasts for storms across the Midwest over the next couple days also providing support, which could help promote some strength in cash markets. Retail values have been mixed the last couple of trading days.


Hog markets are currently trading mixed, with Dec hogs 20 cents higher to 61.02 and Feb hogs down 27 cents to 67.55. Feb hogs had a strong start to the day, but failed at the 10-day moving average and are now turning negative, which could give us a bit of a weak technical picture as prices have consolidated over the past handful of days. We still haven’t taken out previous days lows which stay supportive, but a break could bring some additional technical selling. Retail values are being closely monitored for demand pace, and those prices have been choppy as of late if not weakening.


Carol Tillmann

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