TFM Midday Update 11-28-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 4 @ 6.64
Corn is trading lower with traders concerned over the Covid protests in China and what it may mean for their economy and demand
Corn is still rangebound and has been consolidating inside a 20-25 cent range, but because prices fell heading into the range, there is potential for a breakout lower
On a bullish note, last week’s export sales with the week’s commitments were the largest of the marketing year by a large amount
Bird flu has been on the rise resulting in another 1.8 million birds being culled in Nebraska, with this trend putting a damper on feed demand

Jan soybeans up 2 @ 14.38
Soybeans are higher along with meal while bean oil is being held lower as crude oil continues to drop and is trading near 75 dollars a barrel
The soy complex is most sensitive to news out of China and the recent Covid protests there may encourage the government to relax the severe zero-Covid policies that are dampening their economy
Argentina’s government is implementing the popular “soy dollar” program again at the end of December offering them 40% above current market prices to encourage selling
Southern Brazil is forecast to get some needed moisture while Argentina is still dry, and the rest of Brazil plants in favorable conditions

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Dec wheat down 24 @ 7.52, Dec KC down 20 @ 9.02, & Dec MNPLS down 6 @ 9.52
Wheat is falling hard this morning taking out levels of support as funds continue to sell and add onto their net short positions
US and world wheat stocks are the lowest in 15 years and Argentinian and Australian wheat have suffered from poor growing conditions, but the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal has trader selling
Argentina’s Buenos Aries Exchange has pegged their wheat crop at 12.4 mmt, compared to earlier projections of 20 mmt
Today’s grain inspections for wheat were very poor at just 279,904 mt

Dec LC down 0.475 @ 152.600 & Jan FC down 0.675 @ 177.625
Both live and feeder cattle are lower despite a strong move up in the cash markets last week of 3 to 4 dollars higher
The decline in boxed beef is likely triggering funds to sell despite higher cash, like today’s movement in hogs
Choice cuts down 0.73 and select up 1.04
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/25: down 1.20 @ 173.63

Dec hogs down 1.700 @ 82.075 & Dec pork cutout down 1.200 @ 91.000
Hogs are sharply lower as cutouts fell another 1.73 on Friday and continue trending lower
Slaughter pace has been strong despite falling cutouts as packers build inventory for December
Protests in China over their Covid policies are putting pressure on hogs and the lack of a strong domestic cash market is prompting fund selling
National Direct Afternoon report has cash at 84.31
Hog slaughter projected at 491K
CME Lean Hog Index for 11/28: down 0.37 @ 86.17

Amanda Brill