TFM Midday Update 11-28-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower today with continued pressure from yesterday’s selloff as the market prepares for a record large US corn harvest of 15.2 billion bushels.
South American weather has turned more favorable for Argentina which has been receiving more rain, and for Brazil, showers are forecast over the next seven days while soaked southern Brazil is expected to get a temporary break from the rain.
Brazil is reportedly running 8 to 10 days behind its usual pace of soybean planting at 74% complete, which is slated to delay both the soy harvest and the planting of second crop corn.
Demand for US corn has been strong for domestic use and exports with sales and shipments up 25% from a year ago, but the prospect of a 2 billion plus carryout has weighed on prices.

Soybeans are trading higher today as they work to regain some of the losses over the past three days. Despite the selloff, soybeans have stayed within their recent range.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 123,300 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
Analysts in Brazil have begun cutting their estimates of soybean production this week with Datagro at 156.6 mmt versus 163.7 mmt a week earlier and Agroconsult at 161.9 mmt versus 169.1 mmt a week ago. Because of this, expectations for export potential have been reduced to 96 mmt from 100 mmt in 2024.
Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials as sellers of 18,865 contracts of soybeans which decreased their net long position to 108,176 contracts.

Wheat is mostly higher with all three classes reversing higher from yesterday’s lows as traders cover short positions on oversold conditions.
According to the crop progress report, US winter wheat is now 91% emerged and nearly completely planted. In addition, good to excellent ratings have jumped 2 points to 50% which is the highest in 4 years.
A storm in the Black Sea region has halted loadings of crude and grains from key ports in Russia and Ukraine and left more than a million people in the area without power.
After more Russian attacks over the weekend, Ukraine is now planning to place convoy vessels in the Black Sea to protect their export corridor.

Amanda Brill