TFM Midday Update 11-28-2025

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher at midday. December ‘25 corn is trading 4-½ cents higher at 436-¼. March ‘26 futures are trading 2-½ cents higher at 447-¾. December ‘26 futures are trading 2-¾ cents higher at 468.
Corn export sales are running 55% ahead of last year, marking what is likely one of the strongest starts to a marketing year on record. USDA projects total exports at 3.075 billion bushels for 2025–26, and current commitments have already reached 39% of that goal, outpacing the five-year average of 34%.
Ukrainian corn exports continue to run far behind last year’s pace, leaving a gap in global supply that has strengthened U.S. export demand as buyers look elsewhere to fill the shortfall.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report, ethanol stocks slipped 1.5% to 21.968 million barrels. Production averaged 1.113 million barrels per day, slightly above the trade’s expectation of 1.099 million.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday after finding support from recent Chinese export interest. January ‘26 futures are trading 3-½ cents higher to 1135. March ‘26 futures are trading 3-¼ cents higher to 1144. November ‘26 futures are trading 2-¾ cents higher at 1125.
Traders say China has bought at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans since Tuesday, lifting total purchases since late October to roughly 3.5 million tons, about 30% of Beijing’s 12-million-ton import target.
Despite the recent Chinese buying, USDA’s export target of 1.635 billion bushels appears overly optimistic. Total soybean export sales have reached only 31% of that goal. This is a 20-year low and well behind the five-year average of 46% for this point in the marketing year.
Meanwhile in South America, Brazil’s grain exporters’ association ANEC trimmed its November soybean export projection to 4.4 million tons, down from last week’s estimate of 4.71 million. Even with the reduction, shipments are still expected to come in 88% higher than the 2.339 million tons exported in November 2024.

Wheat futures are trading steady to slightly higher at midday, finding spillover support from corn and soybeans. December ‘25 Chicago wheat is trading 3-¼ cents higher at 532-¼. December Kansas City wheat is trading 1-¾ cents higher at 519. December spring wheat is trading 3 cents higher at 579.
Wheat export sales for the week ending October 9 totaled 614,000 tons, down from 888,000 tons the week before but above the 504,000 tons recorded a year earlier. The largest buyers during the week were Thailand, the Philippines, and Mexico.
LSEG’s commodities research team has raised its estimate for Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop by 8%, lifting production expectations to 21.0 million metric tons. The upgrade reflects better-than-expected late-season weather and solid soil moisture. The group also boosted its outlook for Australia, increasing its 2025/26 wheat production estimate by 2.3% to 35.6 million tons, supported by strong readings from satellite vegetation imagery.
A South Korean feed group has reportedly bought 131,300 metric tons of milling wheat from the U.S. and Canada, with 91,300 tons sourced from the U.S. and the remainder supplied by Canada.

Matthew Lucas