TFM Midday Update 11-29-2023

CORN

Corn is trading mostly higher today after prices took out yesterday’s low to make a new contract low. Large US production combined with the expectation of large South American production has pressured prices.
Argentinian weather has been more favorable with widespread showers passing through this week, but Brazil has remained drier than usual causing delays to soy planting which would delay second crop corn.
Demand has been good for US corn with export sales running 25% above a year ago thanks to Mexico being a primary buyer, and domestic demand has been good as well.
Brazil is reportedly running 8 to 10 days behind its usual pace of soybean planting at 74% complete, which is slated to delay both the soy harvest and the planting of second crop corn.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower today but remain near the center of their recent trading range. Improved South American weather has kept prices from rallying further.
According to MB Agro, Brazil has already gone through the worst parts of the El Nino weather pattern, but the initial planting delays could still impact total production.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower today, but overall, crush margins have been improving which has helped support domestic demand.
Yesterday, a flash sale of 4.5 mb of soybeans was announced to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year, and now rumors have been circulating about another 4 to 8 cargoes that may have been purchased by China.

Wheat is also mostly higher today with Chicago and KC firmly higher but Minn lagging behind. Reports of crop destruction in Australia may be supporting prices.
Heavy rains fell through southeastern Australia which severely damaged the wheat crop and potentially reduced production by over 100,000 tons and turned up to 1 mmt of milling wheat into lower quality feed grain.
The Russian wheat harvest is now forecast to fall in 2024 to 89.8 mmt from previous estimates of 91.5 mmt due to lower yields.
Morocco is reportedly looking to import 2.5 mmt of wheat between January and April of 2024. It is likely that their primary source will be Russia, but it is possible that some will be purchased from the U.S.

Amanda Brill