TFM Midday Update 11-29-2024

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 41.8 mb of corn export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 2.6 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 39.8 mb were under the 47.9 mb pace needed to reach the
USDA’s export goal of 2.325 bb. Commitments have reached 1.278 bb for 24/25 which is up 33% from last year.
India had reached their ethanol blending target of 10% (E10) ahead of schedule in 2022. For reference, their blend was only about 1.5% in 2013-2014. They now aim to have a 20% blend (E20) by the end of 2025.
US ethanol production on Wednesday was a new record at 1.119 million barrels per day. Demand for ethanol has been strong, and this in part is helping to keep nearby corn futures supported above 400.

The USDA reported an increase of 91.5 mb of soybean export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.7 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 76.5 mb exceeded the 29.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.825 bb. Commitments have reached 1.245 bb which is up 10% from last year.
In daily sales announcements, private exporters reported sales of 840,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, along 151,700 mt also to unknown destinations, and both for the 24/25 marketing year.
Palm oil was higher on Thursday and is sharply higher again on Friday. This is giving a boost to soybean oil this morning. However, soybean meal is trading lower, which may be keeping a lid on soybean futures prices.

The USDA reported an increase of 13.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 15.9 mb were under the 16.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Commitments have reached 557 mb which is up 20% from last year.
US wheat is trading in mixed fashion this morning with Chicago mostly higher, Kansas City mostly lower, and Minneapolis higher. Both the KC and MPLS futures made new contract lows on Wednesday, keeping the downtrend intact. However, futures are at or near technical oversold levels that could indicate a bottom is near.
Argentina’s wheat export values are said to be around $216 per mt FOB. This is about $10 below Russian wheat, which is already cheap itself. These low global export offers are keeping pressure on the US market.

Brandon Doherty