TFM Midday Update 11-30-2020

CORN

Dec down 2-3/4 @ 4.22-3/4 and March Down 4 @ 4.29-3/4
Wetter forecast in Brazil weighing on the grain market overall
In addition, end of month squaring of positions seeing some long liquidation
Demand stays positive with reported new flash sales of a combined 13.5 MB for the marketing year by unknown destinations
Chart looking at a possible bearish turn technically after higher overnight session
First notice day for Dec futures 11/30/2020 – LTD 12/14/2020
March corn support @ 4.19 & resistance at 4.36

Jan down 17-1/2 @ 11.74-1/2 and March Down 17-3/4 @ 11.75
Wetter South American forecast bringing long liquidation into the market
End of month trade and exiting long positions adding to the selling
Concerns that demand is slowing and shifting to locking in South American supplies
Weekly export shipments stay supportive at 2.0 MMT last week.
Jan soybean support @ 11.74 and resistance at 12.00

March CHI down 17-1/4 @ 5.88-3/4, KC Mar down 15-1/4 @ 5.50, and MPLS Mar down 12-3/4 to 5.57-1/2
Weakness in other grain bringing selling support into the wheat market
Analysts have raised the Australian wheat crop by 2.3 MMT to 31.2 MMT
First notice day for Dec futures 11/30/2020 – LTD 12/14/2020
USD down trying to reverse off session lows
Russia Ag ministry has proposed to increase the size of their grain export quota by 2.5 MMT for Feb 15 to June 30

Dec LC down 0.450 @ 110.175 and Jan FC up 0.200 @ 140.025
Dec LC still holding resistance of 112 & FC trying to push above 140 resistance levels
Strong beef price trend to support higher cash ahead
Cash trade finished at $111 last week, trend is expected higher this week
Beef carcasses higher at midday with Choice up 1.17 to 244.20
Cash trade will likely set the tone for the cattle market this week
Weakness in grain markets supporting Feeders today

Dec up 1.050 @ 66.925 and Feb up 1.175 @ 68.425
Domestic demand tone firm, with strong jump in midday carcass value, up 8.17 to 88.13
$10 jump in hams and $32 jump in bellies support retail values, export buying?
Talk that Chinese domestic hog prices are on the rise
Hog slaughter estimated near 490,000 head keeping the supply side heavy
Cash Lean Index 0.23 lower @ 67.15, limits gains

John Heinberg