TFM Midday Update 11-4-2025

CORN

Corn prices remain soft at midday as the market reacts to a bearish yield and production estimates by StoneX yesterday. December corn is trading 4-1/4 cents lower to $4.30-00, while the March contract is down 3-3/4 cents to $4.43-00.
StoneX has raised their corn yield estimate to 186 bpa, up from 185.9 bpa previously. The group also increased their production number to 16.748 billion bushels.
Conab released their ethanol production estimates with the group seeing total 2025/26 production at 36.16 billion liters. This is up from the previous estimate of 35.74 billion liters.

Soybeans continue to pull back at midday, giving back most of yesterday’s gains. Weakness is attributed to China buying South American beans. January futures are down 14-1/4 cents to $11.05-1/2.
StoneX lowered their soybean yield estimate to 53.6 bpa, down slightly from the group’s previous estimate of 53.9 bpa. The group sees soybean production at 4.033 billion bushels, down from the prior estiamte of 4.326 billion bushels.
According to AgRural, Brazil’s soybean planting is jumped to 47% complete as of the end of October. This is up from 36% the week prior but behind last year’s pace of 54% done through the same week.

All three wheat classes are lower at midday, pressured by both the corn and soybean market. December Chicago futures down 2-00 cents to $5.41-1/2, December KC down 4-00 cents to $5.27-3/4, and December Minneapolis a 00-1/4 cent lower to $5.58-1/4.
SovEcon increased their export estimate for Russian wheat to 43.8 mmt, up from the groups previous estimate of 43.4 mmt.
US winter wheat planting is estimated at 90% complete, and conditions are seen improving 2% to 52% good-to-excellent, which would be up from 41% last year.

Keegan Madigan