TFM Midday Update 11-4-21

CORN

  • Dec down 2 @ 5.62
  • USDA reported an increase of 48.2 mb of corn export sales
  • Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.107 million barrels per day last week (up 1000 bpd), which is the 2nd highest weekly average on record
  • Ethanol plants are said to be at 97% capacity
  • January corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $10.60 per bushel

SOYBEANS

  • Nov down 15 @ 12.16
  • USDA reported an increase of 68.5 mb of soybean export sales
  • October Brazilian soybean sales are at 3.3 mmt vs 2.4 mmt last year
  • China have been buying Brazilian soybeans lately
  • US weather should be dry for the next 10 days or so, which should help harvest
  • On the Nov 9 WASDE report we could see a decline in US exports (maybe 50 to 75 mb)

WHEAT

  • Dec wheat up 4 @ 7.85, Dec KC up 4 @ 7.95, Dec MNPLS up 3 @ 10.47
  • USDA reported an increase of 14.7 mb of wheat export sales
  • Total sales are down 22% from last year
  • Australia has been getting rains (especially in the east) which may be affecting their wheat crop in terms of quality and also slowing harvest
  • US wheat is currently the world’s most expensive

CATTLE

  • Dec LC down 0.350 @ 131.300 & Jan FC down 0.225 @ 159.000
  • Packers need cattle to fulfill the slaughter pace
  • Live cattle gapped higher on the charts, this gap may need to be filled at some point
  • Choice cuts up 1.11 and select up 1.59
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 122K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/3: down 0.61 @ 155.65

HOGS

  • Feb hogs up 1.650 @ 77.600 & Feb pork cutout up 1.650 @ 93.450
  • Hog futures gapped higher, which leaves gaps open above and below current levels
  • Volatility of cutouts may indicate a bottom in the market
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.30
  • Hog slaughter projected at 479K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/4: down 0.34 @ 78.70

Author

Brandon Doherty

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