TFM Midday Update 11-5-2025

CORN

Corn prices continue to move higher at midday, supported by news that China will remove the reciprocal tariff on U.S. corn imports effective November 10. December corn is up at 4.34.
S&P Global left their U.S. corn yield estimates unchanged at 185.5 bpa.
CONAB reports that Brazil’s corn planting is 43% complete, while Ukraine’s harvest has reached 40%. Rains are gradually improving dry areas across Brazil, and the 10-day forecast indicates sufficient moisture to keep corn stress levels in check.
Ethanol production surged to a record 330 million gallons for the week ending October 31, up from 321 million gallons the previous week and 1.6% higher year over year. Output exceeded market expectations.

The soybean market is posting gains at midday following overnight news that China will remove reciprocal tariffs on soybeans starting November 10. However, China will maintain the existing 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans, raising questions about the competitiveness of U.S. supplies relative to South American offerings. The entire soy complex is gaining at midday with November soybeans up at 11.17 ¾.
S&P Global left their U.S. yield estimate unchanged at 53.0 bpa.
Soybean open interest increased by more than 16,000 contracts yesterday and has risen steadily over the past 10 sessions. Speculative funds are now estimated to hold a net long position between 75,000 and 85,000 contracts in soybeans.
Plans for a farmer aid package to offset tariff impacts remain in place, though implementation is delayed until the government reopens. Officials indicated that the size of the assistance could change depending on how agricultural markets react to the recent U.S.–China trade agreement.

Midday wheat trade was mixed, with Chicago futures climbing and Kansas City futures retreating. The market found support after reports that China bought U.S. SRW wheat and possibly U.S. white and spring wheat, marking its first U.S. wheat purchase since October of last year. Chicago December wheat is up at 5.50 ½.
China is also set to remove the reciprocal tariff on U.S. wheat beginning November 10.
LSEG left its EU and UK wheat production forecast unchanged at 147.1 million tons. The group also issued a preliminary estimate for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat crop at 81.4 million tons, below the USDA’s 2025/26 estimate of 85.0 million ton.
Ukrainian wheat shipments fell in October to 1.51 million tons, compared with 1.83 million tons in September, reflecting a seasonal slowdown in exports.

Lauren VandenLangenberg