TFM Midday Update 11-6-2025

CORN

Corn futures slipped lower at midday. December futures are down 5 cents to 430-¼. March futures have slid 4 cents lower to 445-½.
CONAB reports that Brazil’s corn planting is 43% complete, while Ukraine’s harvest has reached 40%. Recent rains are gradually improving dry areas across Brazil, and the 10-day forecast points to adequate moisture levels to keep crop stress in check.
With the U.S. harvesting entering its final stages and favorable planting conditions found in South America, the market will continue to feel the weight from supply pressures.
EIA reported record ethanol production at 1.123 million barrels per day, an increase of 32,000 bpd from the previous week. The higher output contributed to a 288,000-barrel build in stocks, bringing totals to 22.655 million barrels as of October 31. Meanwhile, ethanol exports declined by 68,000 bpd to 107,000 bpd, and refiner inputs edged 7,000 bpd lower to 904,000 bpd.

Soybean futures slid to bottom of the trading range from the prior three sessions at midday. January futures have lost 21 cents to 1113-¼. March futures have lost 18 cents, now trading at 1124.
Soybean futures have slipped as subdued Chinese demand for U.S. cargoes, despite easing trade tensions between the two countries, exerted pressure on the markets.
China has agreed to suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, including duties on farm goods, following last week’s meeting between the two countries’ leaders. However, U.S. soybean imports will continue to face a 13% tariff.
Citi Research noted that it has raised its targets for future U.S. soybean prices, even though significant Chinese purchases of U.S. exports may not materialize quickly.

At midday, wheat futures followed corn and soybeans lower. December Chicago wheat futures have shed 15-¼ cents to 539-½. Kansas City wheat has lost 14-¼ cents, now trading at 525-½. MIAX wheat is trading 4 cents lower to 553.
The wheat market came under pressure amid expectations of increased supplies from Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter.
The Russian government is reportedly considering nearly doubling its grain export quota to 20 million metric tons for the second half of the 2025/26 marketing season, running from February 15 to June 30, according to a draft document published Wednesday by the Russian Grain Union.
U.S. wheat export prices have risen above Russian and French origins, propelled by the recent strength in the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar could temper the ongoing wheat market rally.

Matthew Lucas