TFM Midday Update 12-01-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 6 @ 6.56
Corn is trading lower with disappointing export sales from last week and a flash sale to Mexico of 114,300 mt for the 22/23 marketing year
Yesterday Jerome Powell signaled that rate hikes would likely be implemented in smaller increments as inflation begins to slow, and as a result the dollar is at its lowest levels in 4 months
The USDA reported 23.7 mb of corn sold for export last week and 13.6 mb shipped, and so far for 22/23 export commitments are down 48% and shipments down 40% from a year ago
Brazil is getting the bulk of export business in corn with prices about 11% cheaper than the US

Jan soybeans down 36 @ 14.33
Soybeans are sharply lower despite crude oil being up 2.50 a barrel as bean oil falls apart today thanks to Russia
Russia and Ukraine have been aggressively offering sunflower oil at a steep discount to soybean oil in which the price difference is the widest seen in over 9 months
Bean oil has been largely propping up the soy complex and now with other veg oils flooding the market, bean oil is not following the upward movement of crude
The USDA reported that 25.5 mb of beans were sold for export last week and 77.8 mb shipped, and so far in 22/23 export commitments are higher but shipments down 10% from last year

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Dec wheat down 9 @ 7.62, Dec KC down 7 @ 9.07, & Dec MNPLS down 5 @ 9.52
Wheat is lower today as funds continue to pile onto their short positions despite the tightest wheat stocks in 15 years
Export sales were disappointing again with only 5.7 mb sold for export last week and 10.0 mb shipped
So far for 22/23 US wheat export commitments are down 6% and shipments are down 3% from a year ago
Turkey, Algeria, and Pakistan have all purchased Russian wheat which is significantly cheaper than US

Dec LC down 0.225 @ 152.900 & Jan FC down 0.075 @ 180.400
Both live and feeder cattle are trading lower with mixed boxed beef and lower corn
Cash traded steady in the South yesterday at 155 but remaining asking prices are around 157, so cash is likely to trade steady to a dollar higher
Net sales of beef were 15,400 mt for 2022 and were primarily to China, Japan, and Canada
Choice cuts up 0.14 and select down 0.81
Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/30: down 0.45 @ 178.40

Dec hogs up 0.175 @ 83.025 & Dec pork cutout down 0.025 @ 90.900
Hogs are trading higher after gains in cash and an increase in the cutout of 1.65
China has announced that they are easing Covid restrictions following the protests which may result in more pork demand from China
Net sales of pork were 20,100 mt and were primarily to Mexico, Japan, and South Korea
National Direct Afternoon report rose 2.15
Hog slaughter projected at 492K
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/1: down 0.32 @ 83.89

Amanda Brill