TFM Midday Update 12-03-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday, following wheat lower and giving back some of yesterday’s gains, which were driven by escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia. December corn is lower at 4.32 ½.
Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Brazil corn production estimate by 2 million tons, noting that the crop needs additional rainfall and that potential delays in safrinha planting this spring could further limit output.
CONAB reported that first-crop corn planting is 66% complete, slightly ahead of the 65% historical average.
U.S. corn demand continues to outperform expectations, with export inspections to date running 71% higher than a year ago.

Soybeans turned lower at midday on unconfirmed reports that China booked a few additional Brazilian soybean cargos overnight, alongside recent U.S. purchases. Soybeans and soybean oil are trading lower, while soybean meal is mixed. January soybeans are lower at 11.20.
Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Brazil soybean production estimate by 1 million tons, citing irregular rainfall across several key growing regions.
U.S. soybeans may see some light support from the evolving weather outlook in Brazil. Recent forecasts show precipitation falling short of expected coverage and amounts. While crop stress is not yet significant, a continued shortfall could raise concern by mid-month.
CONAB estimated Brazil’s soybean planting at 86% complete, slightly ahead of the 84.4% historical average.

Wheat prices are lower at midday, pulling back from yesterday’s rally driven by Putin’s threats, in line with corn’s decline. December Chicago wheat is trading lower at 5.37 ½.
Following the attack on another Russian tanker, Putin threatened new strikes on Ukrainian tankers and ports, and even suggested Russia might target vessels from countries supporting Ukraine. The latest U.S.-facilitated peace talks collapsed yesterday, with no agreement reached — indicating that hostilities are likely to continue in the near term.
Reports indicate that Argentine wheat is showing lower-than-expected quality and protein as harvest advances.
In the U.S., bitter cold temperatures will linger through the remainder of the week across parts of the Midwest and Northern Plains, but existing snow cover should limit any winterkill concerns.

Lauren VandenLangenberg