TFM Midday Update 12-04-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower today due to better-than-expected rains in Brazil over the weekend. Argentina received beneficial rains as well, and it appears that the worst of the El Nino pattern is over.
This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 267,044 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
So far, there have been 652 corn contracts delivered against the December futures which expire on December 14, and this has put some pressure on the corn market.
With U.S. corn the cheapest feed grain in the world and finally competitive with Brazil, export demand has improved, and export sales are now 33% above a year ago.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher today after breaking lower in the overnight below the low end of the recent trading range as a result of wet South American weather.
This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 183,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 23/24 marketing year.
Both soybean meal and oil are higher today after the Crush report was released and showed the crush for October at 201.1 mb, which was a record large monthly crush.
Ag Resource has reported that 82% of the soybeans in Brazil have been planted, which is 10 points below the 5-year average. Weather has improved significantly, which should help out the soybeans already planted.

Wheat is leading the grain complex higher today after a surprise sale to China was announced and funds continue to cover their large net short position.
Private exporters reported a flash sale of 440,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
Ukrainian exports of grain are down 33% for the year so far, with only 5.8 mmt of wheat exported. In addition, recent comments from Russia has trade wondering if the country may be running low on supplies.
Wheat production in southwestern Argentina is expected to be lower by 27% from last season at around 2.8 mmt due to a lack of rain.

Amanda Brill