TFM Midday Update 12-08-2021

CORN

Mar corn up 3 @ 5.89
Pfizer commented that their vaccine should help against the omicron virus which is supportive to the market
EPA ethanol blending mandate was about as expected (maybe slightly bearish) with 2021 at 13.3 billion gallons, while 2022 is at 15.0 billion gallons
YTD ethanol exports are at 976.6 million gallons vs 1.092 billion last year
European and American weather models are somewhat conflicting in terms of moisture for northern Brazil / southern Argentina
Expectations for only minor changes on tomorrow’s WASDE report
Private exporters reported sales of 1,844,040 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico

Jan soybeans up 10 @ 12.60
Soybean crush is expected to rise over the next several years to meet biofuel demand
EPA biofuel mandate for 2021 at 5.2 billion gallons, and 2022 at 5.77 billion gallons
Soybean carryout could be raised on tomorrow’s WASDE report due to lower exports
Brazil will likely have soybeans available in January
Private exporters reported sales of 130,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China

Mar wheat down 12 @ 7.97, Mar KC down 15 @ 8.12, Mar MNPLS up 2 @ 10.38
No major changes expected for wheat on tomorrow’s WASDE report
All three classes of wheat are consolidating
Stats Canada reported the Canadian spring wheat crop was larger than anticipated
Australia is projecting a larger crop than the USDA estimate
Census wheat export data for October was the lowest level (1.217 mmt) since the 1970s

Feb hogs down 0.750 @ 75.800 & Feb pork cutout unchanged @ 88.325
Futures may get a bounce after declining for 3 consecutive days (typically fund selling lasts 2 or 3 days)
Dec and Feb contracts have gaps above the market that may need to be filled
Increased weights may be due to supply backup
Hog slaughter projected at 472K
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/8: up 0.16 @ 70.94

Brandon Doherty