TFM Midday Update 12-09-2021


  • Mar corn up 2-1/4 @ 5.89-1/4
  • Expectations for only minor changes on today’s WASDE report, but for corn carry out to be slightly reduced.
  • Strong weekly ethanol production report supports the corn market as last week’s production moved to a 5-week high and challenging all-time weekly production levels.
  • Expectations are for an additional adjustment higher in corn for ethanol demand on the USDA report.
  • USDA Weekly export sales reported: Net sales of 1,132,500 MT for 2021/2022 were up 11% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average. Still neutral overall for corn.
  • Technical picture stays strong as corn futures continue to push to a high over the previous day and showing strong price action. Mar at 5.96 will be key resistance.


  • Jan soybeans down 8 @ 12.53
  • Soybean futures pricing in a possible increase in carry out on today’s USDA reports
  • USDA weekly export sales reported: Net sales of 1,637,900 MT for 2021/2022 were up 54% from the previous week and 27% from the prior 4-week average. Still trailing last year’s pace and pressuring the market.
  • Private exporters reported sales of 280,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, split evenly between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years. This is the 10th consecutive day of announced soybean sales.
  • Brazil CONAB raised expected soybean production to 142.79 MMT vs 142.01 MMT on their November report.


  • Mar wheat down 13 @ 7.80Mar KC down 13 @ 7.99Mar MNPLS down 12 @ 10.23
  • No major changes expected for wheat on today’s WASDE report, but the market will be watching global supply trends.
  • USDA weekly export sales reported: Net sales of 239,900 MT for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 27% from the prior 4-week average. Totals neutral to bearish for U.S. wheat prices.
  • Potential for improved rainfall chances in southern Plains helping pressure the market.
  • Additional technical selling as prices are challenging key support at the 7.80 level for Mar wheat.


  • Feb LC down 0.725 @ 137.925 & Mar FC down 0.950 @ 165.000
  • Weakness of boxed beef contrasts with higher cash potential
  • Cash market is slow to develop, which is causing some pause in the market.
  • Weak retail values are concerning as boxed beef prices are moving lower counter-seasonal.  A weak retail tone may limit gains in the cash market.
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 122K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/8: up 0.20 @ 161.16 and running a discount to the feeder futures prices.


  • Feb hogs up 0.750 @ 76.800 & Feb pork cutout up 1.125 @ 83.900
  • Futures trying to find some footing after challenging key lows yesterday, supported by firming retail prices.
  • Cash markets are still not supportive of prices and limit near-term rallies.
  • Increased weights may be due to supply backup
  • Overall premium of the futures market to cash market is concerning and may keep selling pressure active in the near term.
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 12/9: down 0.11 @ 70.83


John Heinberg

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