TFM Midday Update 12-1-2023

CORN

Corn is trading mixed today following yesterday’s strong gains. Good export sales were supportive yesterday while the looming prospect of big ending stocks has added resistance.
Weather in Argentina has improved significantly from last year, and normal to higher production is expected. Brazilian weather is also forecast to improve but the first corn crop is still reportedly 2 to 3 weeks behind.
Argentinian corn is now 32% planted and their corn crop is estimated at 55 mmt which would be more than double last year’s production.
Both US domestic and export demand has been a bullish point, and corn used in ethanol production is now seen up 0.9% year over year to 452.7.

Soybeans are trading lower today largely due to pressure from soybean meal as traders anticipate a decline in export demand. Soybean oil is trading lower as well.
Private exporters reported flash sales this morning of 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year, and 198,000 mt to unknown destinations.
The US soybean crush is estimated to jump to a record 201.1 million bushels, while soybean oil stocks are expected to decline for a sixth straight month, according to a survey of analysts ahead of the USDA’s monthly report.
Some analysts are revising their production estimates for Brazilian soybeans lower with consultancy Patria Agroegocios lowering their estimate to 150.67 mmt from 154.10 mmt. This would be a 2.2% drop from last year.

The wheat complex is trading mixed to start the month and appear to have made a bottom this past Monday following good export sales this past week.
There have been a significant number of deliveries against KC and Chicago wheat over the past 2 days with 1,725 contracts against Chicago and 255 against KC.
Yesterday’s export sales report which showed 22.9 mb of sales for wheat last week was encouraging, and China was listed as a buyer.
There are rumors that French ports are loading wheat for China and that France has sold a total of 2.5 mmt of wheat to China for the December through March timeframe.

Amanda Brill