TFM Midday Update 12-10-19


Corn futures are slightly higher this morning with Dec up 3/4 of a cent to 3.66-1/2, Mar is steady at 3.75-3/4, and May is up 1/4 of a cent to 3.81-1/2. Price action so far today has been very muted ahead of the USDA Supply and Demand report and Mar corn has been within a range today of just 2 cents. Extended forecasts are beginning to show dryer weather for Argentina, which will be watched closely. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that 92% of the corn crop is harvested vs 89% last week and 100% last year and on average. ND is still just 43% harvested. Funds sold about 5,000 contracts of corn yesterday.


Soybean futures are a bit higher in relatively quiet trade so far today with Jan up 2-3/4 to 9.00, Mar beans are up 2-1/2 to 9.14-1/4, and May beans are up 2-3/4 to 9.28-1/4. Soybean oil futures are higher again today after sharp gains yesterday and meal is attempting to stabilize after two weak sessions. News broke this morning that the U.S. will be delaying tariffs scheduled for December 15th, a positive trade development. Mar soybean futures have held support so far this morning at the 20-day moving average level, but have not been able to break through yesterday’s highs. Speculative funds were thought to have bought 11,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday.


Wheat markets are very slightly lower this morning with Mar Chi wheat down a penny to 5.21-3/4, Mar KC wheat is down 1/4 of a cent to 4.25-3/4, and Mar spring wheat is down 3/4 of a cent to 5.12-1/2. Trade is very quiet today ahead of the USDA Supply and Demand report, as well as the results of the Egyptian tender. Dry weather in the Plains last week and expected for the next seven days is supportive for wheat prices. The U.S. dollar index has been choppy to lower, also positive. Chi wheat futures held their 20-day moving average support level at yesterday’s close, but have drifted below so far today. Mar KC wheat is extending yesterday’s losses though futures are just off the highs of the day currently. Mar spring wheat has traded within a range of just 1-1/2 cents after holding nearby support at yesterday’s close. Speculative funds were thought to have sold about 3,000 contracts of Chi wheat yesterday.


Cattle markets are mixed this morning with Dec lives up 2 cents to 120.20, Feb lives are steady at 124.75, and Apr lives are down a dime to 125.30. Jan feeders are up 80 cents to 142.32, and Mar feeders are up 87 cents to 143.15. Beef values continued their trend lowr yesterday afternoon and we will not expect much significant cash trade until tomorrow’s Fed Cattle Exchange has concluded. Dry weather in the forecast will make weight gain easy, which could also pressure the cash markets. The best traded Feb live cattle contract briefly tested overhead resistance at the 20-day moving average level and has since drifted back. Apr lives opened just off the highs for today so far and traded within a quiet low range for the majority of the day. Jan feeders have pushed through their 50 and 200-day moving average levels and are testing resistance at the 20-day moving average.


Hog markets are higher this morning with Dec up 22 cents to 60.22, Feb hogs were up 1.00 to 67.70, and Apr hogs were up 1.07 to 74.05. The index may be slowly trying to carve a new trend higher and pork values were lower yesterday. News overnight that the U.S. would be delaying the scheduled December 15th tariffs on China was supportive. Yesterday’s selling pressure likely attracted some technical buying with futures drifting towards the low end of recent trading ranges despite a solid pork trend and apparent progress between the U.S. and China. Feb hogs have pushed back through nearby resistance at the 10-day moving average and back towards the middle of the recent trading range. Apr hogs are showing similar price action, back through nearby resistance and towards the middle of the recent trading range.


Kelly Rubisch

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