TFM Midday Update 12-10-2021


  • Mar corn down 3 @ 5.88
  • USDA report showed no major changes to carryout, leaving the number at 1.493 billion bushels, the same level as the November report.
  • Prices likely seeing some post report profit-taking as the number was slightly above expectations.
  • Demand remains strong with another good week of corn usage for ethanol production
  • Prices received an early session boost as CPI data showed consumer inflation was at 6.8% year over year for last month, above expectations.
  • Technical picture stays strong as corn futures continue to push to a high over the previous day and showing strong price action. March at 5.96 will be key resistance.


  • Jan soybeans up 4 @ 12.68
  • USDA WASDE left carryout unchanged and tightened global carryout forecast, which supported prices.
  • After 10 consecutive days, no announced soybean export sales on the overnight.
  • Strong move in soybean meal prices, offset by pressure in soybean oil is keeping soybean prices choppy on Friday.
  • Going into the end of the year, the market will stay extremely focused on demand and the trends in South American weather.


  • Mar wheat up 7 @ 7.84, Mar KC up 5 @ 8.02, Mar MNPLS up 4 @ 10.26
  • Wheat prices recovering and seeing some price squaring after the strong move lower this week.
  • USDA raised both U.S. and global wheat carry out on the WASDE report on Thursday, disappointing the market.
  • U.S. wheat prices are closely tied to Matif Milling Wheat prices in Europe, which have trended lower, leading U.S. wheat lower.
  • March Chicago wheat is challenging resistance at 7.80 level, which was key support broken yesterday.


  • Feb LC up 0.325 @ 138.100 & March FC up 0.850 @ 165.950
  • Early cash trade was $140 in the south, steady with last week, and disappointing to the market
  • Weak retail values are concerning as boxed beef prices are moving lower counter-seasonal. Weak retail tone may limit gains in the cash market.
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 123K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/9: up 0.47 @ 161.63 and running a discount to the Feeder futures prices.
  • Cattle could be close to a seasonal turn, but steady cash market was disappointing and could keep pressure on the market.


  • Feb hogs up 2.400 @ 80.225 & Feb pork cutout up 2.500 @ 86.000
  • Hog futures seeing follow-through buying and short-covering after Thursday’s strong close.
  • Cash market is showing signs of life, with National Direct midday prices firmer, building some potential optimism.
  • Carcass values have trended higher this week, even with the soft close on Thursday.
  • Overall premium of the futures market to cash market is still concerning and may keep selling pressure active in the near term.
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 12/10: up 0.12 @ 70.95


John Heinberg

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