TFM Midday Update 12-10-2025

CORN

Corn futures are weaker at midday, giving back part of the gains seen after yesterday’s WASDE report. March ‘26 futures are 5-¾ cents lower at $4.35. December ‘26 futures are 1-¾ cents lower at $4.64.
USDA dropped US 25/26 corn carryout at 2,029 due to higher exports. Some feel that USDA may be too aggressive in raising exports due to slow start in Ukraine exports.
The Ukrainian Farmers Union reported that poor harvest conditions have left 8 million of the expected 32 million tons still unharvested, putting those supplies at high risk of quality deterioration. This is cited as a key factor behind the recent slowdown in Ukraine’s export pace.
According to LSEG weather forecasters, La Niña is expected to dissipate by the March–May timeframe. Its exit may heighten the likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions across the U.S. Midwest and Plains heading into next summer.
Ethanol production matched expectations at 325 million gallons, down 6 million from last week but still 2.5% above last year. Output averaged 15.7 million barrels per day, comfortably above the 15.3 million needed to meet USDA projections. Stocks held steady at 22.5 million barrels, just under last year’s 22.6 million.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher at midday as the market continues to digest the WASDE report. January ‘26 futures are trading 2 cents higher to $10.89-¼. March ‘26 futures are trading 1-½ cents higher at $10.99-¾. November ‘26 futures are ¾ cent higher at $10.95-½.
USDA confirms the following U.S. export sales for delivery in 2025/26, 136,000 tons of soybeans to China, 119,000 tons of soybeans to unknown, 212,000 tons of soybeans to unknown, and 120,000 tons of soybean meal to Poland.
China is preparing to auction soybeans from government reserves in order to create storage capacity for expected imports from the U.S. and Argentina.
Traders are still adjusting positions following Argentina’s recent export tax cut, which brings the country’s soybean export tax to its lowest level since 2007.

Wheat is lower at midday, with slightly higher-than-expected global stocks and active harvests in Australia and Argentina limiting fundamental support. March Chicago wheat has shed 7-¾ cents to $5.26-¾. Kansas City wheat is trading 5-1/2 cents lower to $5.26-¾. MIAX wheat has slipped 2 cents to $5.74.
Wheat is also responding to Argentina’s export tax cut and the country’s record harvest, both of which are adding bearish pressure to the market.
Coceral lowered its 2026 EU + UK wheat production estimate to 143.9 million tons, down from 147.5 million tons this year.
Tunisia tendered for 125,000 tons of SRW and 100,000 tons of Durum overnight, but overall global demand has remained sluggish this week.

Matthew Lucas