TFM Midday Update 12-11-2024

CORN

The corn market is firm at midday as it struggles to extend Tuesday’s rally against overhead resistance at the 200-day moving average in the March contract.
The December WASDE report revealed stronger-than-expected demand for US corn. The USDA increased export estimates by 150 mb and ethanol use by 50 mb, bringing total projected corn usage for the 24/25 marketing year to 15.19 bb—a record high by 221 mb if realized.
Managed funds are estimated to have bought 24,000 corn futures contracts on yesterday’s rally, extending their net long position to a net 135,000 contracts.
Open interest in corn also increased yesterday by about 27,000 contracts suggesting fresh money is entering the corn market on the long side.

Soybeans are higher at midday, supported by gains in soybean oil and potential further short-covering.
The December WASDE report left the US balance sheet unchanged, with only a small increase in Argentina’s production and no changes to Brazil’s production.
Yesterday’s rally in the soybean market prompted managed fund short covering, with funds covering an estimated 5,000 soybean futures contracts, bringing their estimated net short to 74,000 contracts.
Open interest in soybean futures decreased by about 10,500 contracts during yesterday’s rally, suggesting short position holders are exiting the market.

The wheat complex is higher at midday as traders look to extend Tuesday’s gains on friendly USDA numbers.
As of December 8, stocks of hard red spring wheat held in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses were down 26% from this time last year, at 13.959 million bushels.
The December WASDE report leaned bullish, with the USDA lowering US ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 795 mb. This reduction was much greater than expected by the trade and has helped support the market.

Scott Masters