TFM Midday Update 12-11-2025

CORN

Corn futures are slightly higher at midday. March ‘26 futures are 2-¼ cents higher at $4.46-¾. December ‘26 futures are 1 cent higher to $4.64-¾.
The USDA reported a flash sale earlier today of 186,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations.
Corn export shipments are running at a record pace this year, with exporters prioritizing early corn deliveries over soybeans due to China’s limited participation in the U.S. soybean market.
In Tuesday’s WASDE report, the USDA lowered global ending stocks to 280.71 MMT, tightening the global stocks-to-use ratio amid strong demand. The ratio is now approaching a 10-year low.

Soybean futures have slipped slightly lower at midday despite a flash export sale to China. January ‘26 futures are 1-¼ cents lower at $10.90. March ’26 futures are 2-¼ cents lower at $10.98-¾. November ‘26 futures are unchanged at $10.95-½.
The USDA reported flash sales today of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans to China and an additional 226,000 metric tons to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025–26 marketing year.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testified before the House Appropriations Committee Tuesday, effectively extending the timeline for China’s 12 MMT soybean purchases. He noted a “discrepancy” in the expected completion date, clarifying that the purchases align with the growing season and should be completed by August 30.
Brazil’s weather forecast over the next couple of weeks looks favorable, easing dryness concerns and supporting the development of what is expected to be a record soybean crop this spring.

Wheat futures are mixed, but mostly higher, at midday. March ‘26 Chicago wheat is 2-¼ cents higher at $5.31-¾. Kansas City wheat is ¼ cent lower at $5.23. MIAX wheat has gained 2 cents, now trading at $5.78.
The dollar found support Thursday amid a broad risk-off sentiment but remained below overnight levels after the Federal Reserve signaled a less hawkish outlook than anticipated. A weaker dollar tends to make U.S. crops more affordable for foreign buyers, potentially boosting demand.
In its December WASDE report, the USDA projected global wheat supplies to rise 7.5 million tons to 1,097.8 million, reflecting higher output across several major exporters. On the demand side, global consumption for 2025/26 was lifted 4.1 million tons to 823.0 million.

Matthew Lucas