TFM Midday Update 12-12-2024

CORN

Corn continues to trend lower at midday on weak export sales announcements and nearly unchanged South American production estimates.
Weekly export sales for corn came in at an 11-week low of 37 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.383 billion bushels which is up 29% from last year.
Conab lowered their Brazilian corn production estimate slightly from 119.81 mmt to 119.63 mmt.
Rosario Grain Exchange left their Argentine corn production estimate unchanged at 50-51 mmt.
Yesterday’s ethanol data showed corn usage for the week ending December 6th at 108.76 mb, which is well above the average weekly pace needed to hit the USDA’s forecast of 5.500 billion bushels.

Soybeans have reversed lower at midday after weekly export sales came in below expectations. March soybeans are finding support right on the 13-day moving average but continue to trade in a narrow window this week.
Weekly export sales for soybeans came in below expectations at 43 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.370 billion bushels which is 12% higher than a year ago.
The USDA confirmed the sale of 334,000 mt of US soybeans to unknown destinations for 24/25. This could help to limit any additional downside.
Conab’s soybean production estimate for Brazil came in below expectations of 168.63 mmt at 166.21.
The Rosario Grain Exchange kept their soybean production estimate for Argentina unchanged at 53-53.5 mmt.

Wheat reverses lower at midday on disappointing export sales. March SRW futures are currently trading above the 13-day moving average but remain about 20 cents below the 50-day moving average.
Weekly export sales for wheat came in at the low end of expectations at 11 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 582 mb which is 9% higher than a year ago.
Conab slightly lowered their Brazil wheat production estimate to 8.06 mmt from 8.11 mmt last month.
The Rosario Grain Exchange modestly raised their Argentine wheat production estimate from 18.8 mmt last month to 19.3 mmt.
Fundamentally, there are still plenty of bullish factors that could provide momentum to the upside. Lower projected exports for Russia in December, dry weather forecasts in the US Plains states and tighter global supplies are just a few.

Tanner Wilson