TFM Midday Update 12-12-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower at midday, primarily driven by spillover weakness from soybeans. March ‘26 futures are 2-¼ cents lower at $4.44-¼. December ‘26 futures are 1-¼ cents lower at $4.63-¾.
This morning, USDA reported a flash sale of 250,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations for the 2025–26 marketing year, offering a fresh boost to near-term export sentiment.
USDA’s delayed export sales report for the week ending November 13 showed strong corn demand, with new sales totaling 2.380 MMT (93.7 mb). Mexico led all buyers. Total commitments have climbed to 1.603 billion bushels, now running 30% ahead of last year’s pace.
Brazil’s crop supply agency, CONAB, inched its 2025–26 corn production outlook slightly higher in Thursday’s December report. The agency lifted its estimate from 138.84 MMT to 138.88 MMT, a modest uptick driven entirely by a small increase in projected planted acreage.

Soybean futures have slid sharply lower at midday, despite a flash export sale to China earlier this morning. January ‘26 futures are 14-3/4 cents lower at $10.78-3/4. March ’26 futures are 14 cents lower at $10.88-1/2. November ‘26 futures are 10-¼ cents lower at $10.88.
China’s state stockpiler, Sinograin, sold the majority of the soybeans it put up for auction from government reserves, according to trade sources. The sale marks the opening move in what is expected to be a series of reserve auctions aimed at clearing space ahead of fresh U.S. soybean arrivals.
This morning, USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2025–26 marketing year, adding a small note of optimism to the export outlook.
Crop agency Conab on Thursday trimmed its 2025–26 Brazilian soybean harvest estimate by roughly 550,000 metric tons, bringing the projection to 177.12 million tons. Even with the downgrade, the crop would set a new record.

Wheat futures are slightly lower across the board despite the recent dollar index weakness. March ‘26 Chicago wheat is 3 cents lower at $5.30-1/2. Kansas City wheat is 3-1/4 cents lower at $5.19. MIAX wheat has lost 1 cent, now trading at $5.76.
The U.S. Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level since mid-October after the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. The softer dollar could provide support for U.S. wheat futures, even as MATIF prices decline and Argentina offers the world’s cheapest wheat exports.
Estimates for Argentina’s wheat crop have jumped to 27.7 MMT from 24.5 MMT, potentially marking a 25-year record. Analysts attribute the surge to “unimaginably” high yields, with harvest now 58% complete.
CONAB raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2025/26 wheat production to 7.96 MMT, up 3.6% from its previous projection. By comparison, the USDA currently uses a figure of 7.7 MMT.

Matthew Lucas