TFM Midday Update 12-13-2021

CORN

Mar corn down 4-3/4 @ 5.85
Market seeing some profit taking pressured by other grain weakness.
Weekly Export inspections totaled 810,000 MT, within expectations and still 16% below last year.
Demand remains strong with large purchase of U.S. corn by Mexico last week, and rumors of China interest in U.S. Corn.
Corn futures still in an uptrend, testing support levels this morning. Prices could drop to the bottom of the trading range at 5.70 in the March contract.

Jan soybeans down 17 @ 1250
Demand stays in focus. No announce export sales this morning as sale and shipments are running nearly 30% behind last year.
Weekly export inspections totaled 1.724 MMT, below expectations and 21% below last year.
Prices are still trending lower overall, with cautious eye being kept on the South American weather forecast.
Argentina picked up some showers over the weekend, but totals were light. Close eye will be kept on forecasts for the southern Brazil and Argentina production areas.

Mar wheat up 4-3/4 @ 7.89, Mar KC up 6 @ 8.11, Mar MNPLS down 3 @ 10.19
Wheat prices are still in a downtrend overall, but prices are recovering, trying to make the turn higher.
Weekly USDA Export inspections at 245,000 MT, within expectations but still 17% below last year.
Increased global and U.S. carryout keeps selling pressure on the market.
Russian wheat taxed were raised to $91/MT, which should help aid in U.S. wheat export demand.
Global wheat demand stays strong and with recent price break, exports may be looking to step into the market and secure supplies.

Feb LC up 1.075 @ 139.200 & March FC up 1.325 @ 166.625
Charts look to turn higher as prices are trending lower, led by disappointing cash trade last week.
Retail values have trended softer, helping pressure the cash market last week.
Cash cattle trade last week was $138-140, steady to lower compared to last week.
Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/10: down 0.12 @ 161.51 and running a discount to the Feeder futures prices.
Cattle attempting to post a seasonal turn, but steady cash market was disappointing and could keep pressure on the market.

Feb hogs down 0.475 @ 80.525 & Feb pork cutout down 0.025 @ 86.400
Hog prices consolidating at the top of last week’s range.
Cash market is showing signs of life, as prices may be trying to find some seasonal value.
Carcass values have trended higher last week, which could help the cash market bid.
Overall premium of the futures market to cash market is still concerning and may keep selling pressure active in the near-term.
CME Lean Hog Index for 12/13: up 0.63 @ 71.58.

John Heinberg