TFM Midday Update 12-15-2021

CORN

  • Mar corn down 5-1/2 @ 5.84-1/2
  • Corn market challenged the November high at 5.96-3/4 before softening.
  • Strong double-digit drop in wheat prices is limiting the gains in the corn market.
  • Market staying focused on South American weather forecast. Ongoing talk of dryness in southern Brazil and Argentina will likely support the market on breaks.
  • Cash market and basis bids remain firm and supportive as producers are holding inventory until 2022.

SOYBEANS

  • Jan soybeans down 4-3/4 @ 1254-3/4
  • Follow through move in soybean meal prices, trading at its highest levels since early July, are helping support the soybean market.
  • Soybean oil under strong selling pressure from weak crude oil market, and as the backside of the spread trade on the strong Soybean meal market.
  • Despite weather concerns, the majority of Brazil soybean crop in good condition and the country is still likely to produce a record size crop.
  • Demand is still a concern as U.S. soybeans are still more expensive than Brazil export prices going into 2022.
  • Prices are still trending lower overall, with cautious eye being kept on the South American weather forecast.

WHEAT

  • Mar wheat down 26 @ 7.61. Mar KC down 22 @ 7.90, Mar MNPLS down 13 @ 10.08
  • Prices breaking to the downside with strong double-digit losses after recent consolidation.
  • U.S. wheat demand a concern with sales down 24% compared to last year.
  • Global wheat demand stays strong and with recent price break, exports may be looking to step into the market and secure supplies.
  • Weak outside markets and strong U.S. dollar trend adding selling pressure to commodity markets in general.

CATTLE

  • Feb LC down 1.300 @ 137.00 & March FC down 0.575 @ 165.825
  • Short-term demand concerns with weak retail prices pressuring the live cattle market.
  • Cash cattle trade still undeveloped, but early bids are leading to steady trade with last week at $138-140.
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 123K.
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/14 was down 0.39 @ 161.77 and running a discount to the Feeder futures prices.
  • Cattle attempting to post a seasonal turn, but steady cash market was disappointing and could keep pressure on the market.

HOGS

  • Feb hogs down 0.775 @ 79.125 & Feb pork cutout down 1.200 @ 90.175
  • Overall market weakness is pressuring the hog market as prices are back testing support.
  • Cash market is showing signs of life on firm National Direct values as prices may be trying to find some seasonal value.
  • Overall premium of the futures market to cash market is still concerning and may keep selling pressure active in the near-term.
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 12/15 down 0.08 @ 72.10.

Author

John Heinberg

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