TFM Midday Update 12-15-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday and has not moved much over the past few weeks but is on track for a slightly lower close on the week in the March contract.
Brazilian weather is expected to be hot and dry for another few days before turning much more favorable with showers expected over the central and northern regions, but the early dryness is expected to reduce total production.
Argentinian weather has been very friendly, especially considering last year’s extreme drought conditions, and 50% of the corn crop is reportedly planted, with only 1% receiving a poor rating.
Yesterday’s Export Sales report was strong again, and total shipments this year are up 32% from the previous year. Mexico has been responsible for nearly half of the corn purchases.

Soybeans are trading lower today but are being bull spread with the larger losses in the deferred contracts. Both soybean meal and oil are mostly lower as well with more pressure coming from soybean oil.
Brazilian weather is back in focus with the next few days remaining hot and dry, but then set to improve significantly with widespread showers that are expected to fall throughout January.
The NOPA crush report will be released later today, and traders are expecting a near record crush of between 186 to 188 mb for November which would compare to 179 mb a year ago.
Argentina shut down its office for export licenses on Monday, but it has reopened today, and so far its new policy changes have caused a 54% reduction in the value of the Argentinian peso.

Wheat is mixed at midday with Chicago and Minneapolis trading higher but KC lower as winter wheat areas are forecast to receive beneficial rains.
Yesterday’s Export Sales report was a marketing year high at 54.8 mb and the largest sales since June 2020, but this was mostly expected after the Chinese flash sales were reported last week.
Macro support for the wheat complex has come from the Federal Reserve’s decision not to increase interest rates and their comments about rate cuts to come next year. This caused the dollar to decline which makes US wheat more competitive.
In the US, rains are expected to fall between Nebraska and central Texas today which should benefit the winter wheat crop, but better chances in the southern Plains will come towards the end of the year.

Amanda Brill