TFM Midday Update 12-16-2020

CORN

  • March up 1 @ 4.26 & Dec up 1 @ 4.12
  • Funds net buyers 1K in corn – O/I +9,100 contracts
  • 4 day in a row positive, still very sideways
  • Strong exports versus rains in Argentina keep market fairly stagnant
  • Cash basis improves and farmers have ceased selling
  • Ethanol productions for last week avg 957K barrels per day, down 3.43% from last wk

SOYBEANS

  • Jan up 1 @ 11.85 & Nov down 2 @ 10.63
  • Funds net buyers 7K contracts – O/I +3,100 contracts
  • Argentine grain inspectors still continue to strike
  • NOPA Nov crush of 181.2 mb – greater than expected – largest Nov crush on record
  • NOPA soymeal exports of 1.082 mt – also largest since 2013
  • Stocks expected to tighten even further below current 175 mb – another run for $12 seems likely

WHEAT

  • Mar CHI down 9 @ 5.90, March KC down 10 @ 5.56, March MPLS down 4 @ 5.64
  • Funds net buyers 3K contracts of SRW wheat – O/I -1,300 contracts
  • Yesterday’s wheat tender by Egypt went 100% to Ukraine/Romania – none to Russia
  • Drought driven, Ukraine grain exports are 23.8 mmt compared to 27.7 mmt last year
  • Lack of snow cover in the Plains furthers concerns about La Nina & drought in US

CATTLE

  • Feb LC up 0.17 @ 113.05 & Jan FC down 0.35 @ 139.75
  • Cattle pressured by cash cattle & boxed beef prices
  • Feeders pressured as corn trades positive for 4th day in a row
  • Cattle on Feed report Friday @ 2:00 p.m CT
  • Today’s slaughter est. at 120K head
  • No cash price developed for LC & @ 136.69 (up 0.12) as of 12/14 for FC cash index
  • O/I: -34 contracts for Feb LC & O/I: +218 contracts for Jan FC

HOGS

  • February Hogs down 1.72 @ 64.72 & Feb Pork Cutout down 1.07 @ 75.20
  • Lack of stability in pork prices may lead futures lower
  • Markets are hyper-focused on direction of pork cutout values
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 483K
  • Cash lean index @ 65.06 (up 0.10) for 12/14
  • O/I: -457 positions for hogs & pork cutout futures + 25 positions

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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