TFM Midday Update 12-16-2021

CORN

  • Mar corn up 3-1/2 @ 5.90-3/4
  • Corn market staying range bound in overall sideways trade.
  • Weekly export sales of 1.948 MMT were a market year high, led by the large purchase from Mexico last week.
  • Recovery in wheat prices and soybean strength helping support corn prices.
  • Cash market and basis bids remain firm and supportive as producers are holding inventory until 2022.

SOYBEANS

  • Jan soybeans up 13-3/4 @ 1275-3/4
  • Export sale of 10,000 pounds of Soyoil to India helping support oil prices.
  • Weekly export sales at 1.306 MMT, near the lower end of expectations. Weekly exports totaled 1.918 MMT were down 21% from last week.
  • Despite weather concerns, the majority of Brazil soybean crop in good condition and the country is still likely to produce a record size crop.
  • Demand is still a concern as U.S. soybeans are still more expensive than Brazil export prices going into 2022, trading nearly $30/MT more than Brazil for spring export prices.
  • Prices are still trending lower overall, with cautious eye being kept on the South American weather forecast.

WHEAT

  • Mar wheat up 11-1/4 @ 7.67. Mar KC up 12-3/4 @ 7.98, Mar MNPLS up 13 @ 10.22-1/2
  • Recovering from Wednesday strong selling pressure, wheat market likely oversold.
  • U.S. wheat demand a concern with sales down 24% compared to last year.
  • Weekly export sales at 650,600 MT, a market year high, as end users picked up lower price wheat supplies. Weekly exports at 274,400 MT.
  • Break lower in the U.S. dollar index helping support wheat and ag commodity futures.

CATTLE

  • Feb LC down 0.550@ 136.025 & March FC down 0.675 @ 163.800
  • Short-term demand concerns with weak retail prices pressuring the live cattle market.
  • Cash cattle trade still developing, but early trade at $136-138 steady to $2 lower than last week.
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/15 was unchanged @ 161.77 and running a discount to the feeder futures prices.
  • Weekly Export sales were 17,100 mt, up noticeably from last week, and an additional 5,700 MT for 2022.
  • Technical picture has turned more negative, but prices are trying to find support today.

HOGS

  • Feb hogs up 0.650 @ 79.975 & Feb pork cutout up 0.450 @ 90.500
  • Hog prices continue to consolidate.
  • Firm close in retail values on Wednesday bringing in some buying optimism.
  • Weekly export sales were supportive at 31,100 MT, up 58% over last week, and an additional 5,800 MT for 2022.
  • Cash market is showing signs of life on firm National Direct values as prices may be trying to find some seasonal value.
  • Overall premium of the futures market to cash market is still concerning and may keep selling pressure active in the near-term.
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 12/16 gained .20 @ 72.30.

Author

John Heinberg

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates